1. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have a few reports coming out of the UK. We have the UK unemployment rate, then we have the UK claimant count, and average earnings. UK unemployment rate is by far the most important out of all the others, but since it's such a solid indicator that almost always comes out as expected, the other indicators get the spotlight, because they are pretty volatile. So the unemployment rate is expected at 5.5%. If it comes out at 5.7% or higher, it would probably be bad for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 5.3% or lower, it would probably be good for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Average earnings and
claimant count will probably also cause some volatility, but usually those are weak indicators and I don't like trading them. I personally won't be trading these reports, because the unemployment rate is highly unlikely to deviate enough to hit my trigger, and the other two are not important enough in my opinion.
2. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US core retail sales coming out of the US. This is an important indicator that I definitely will be watching and possibly trading personally. It's expected to come out at 0.7% or so. A reading of 1.0% or higher would be strong, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the reading is at 0.3% or lower, it would be a relatively low reading, considering that previous retail sales were flat, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I am saying 50 pips here with a lot of caution, because if there are any revisions or large conflicts with headline and core numbers, and if the GBP/USD is at some key price levels before the report, it may turn into a totally different story.
3. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) CANADA
At the same time as the US report, we also have Canadian manufacturing shipments report coming out, which is expected to come out at around 0.3%, after a whopping jump of 2.8% last month. If this number reads 1.5% or higher, EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, if this number reads -1.0% or more negative, EUR/CAD may possibly gain 40 pips or more on the back of such bad reading. Please note that I am saying EUR/CAD, instead of USD/CAD,since we don't want to trade USD/CAD, in case of possibly conflict between retail sales out of US and this Canadian report. However, if both reports compliment each other, and the price is still at a decent entry level, USD/CAD can possibly be traded as well.
4. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (6:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we have retail sales coming out of New Zealand. Unlike the US, where most of focus is on core number, the most important number in New Zealand is actually the headline number, which is expected to come out flat at 0.0% after a whopping gain of 1.3% last month. If the retail sales show a growth of 0.3%, I think we may see NZD/USD gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at -0.3% or more negative, we may see NZD/USD go down by
30 pips or more in the hour of the report.
13.6.07
