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Long Term Trade, 14 Jun 2007, buy E/U 1.3315 TP 150 SL 50 (Float +120), sell USD/CHF 1.2432 TP 175 SL 100(Float 35). 18 Jun 2007 buy GJ 244.15 TP 245.88 SL 242.63 (Float +93), buy GU 1.9768 TP 1.9890 SL SL 1.9690 (Float +105), buy AUD/USD 0.8420 TP 0.8543 SL 0.8343 (Float +43) <-- by Ezra

1. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (3:30 am New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 3:30 a.m. NY time we have interest rates statement coming out of Switzerland. They are expecting the rate to be hiked from 2.25% last month to 2.50%. This is largely priced in and largely expected so even if the rate is hiked, I do not think that there is going to be much price movement. If for some reason, however, the rate is not hiked and it stays at 2.25% it will be a possible buy on USD/CHF which could be good for around 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even if the rate is hiked, there may be a speech accommodating the interest rate statement. If in the speech they're mentioning that further rate hikes may be needed then I think USD/CHF may possibly go down toward Swiss strength by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
Then, we have UK retail sales m/m coming out. They are expected to come out at 0.3% versus -0.1% last month. Retail sales is an important indicator that accounts for a large portion of consumer spending, and this may be very exciting. I feel that if the retail sales come out at 0.5% or higher we may possibly see GBP/USD move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, on the other hand, the retail sales come out flat at 0% I think GBP/USD may possibly weaken and go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, it may be more, it may be 70 pips but it will largely depend on how big deviation from the expectations is.

3. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then, we have producer price index, also known as PPI, coming out of the US. In addition to that, we have the producer price index excluding food and energy coming out of the US, and we have unemployment claims coming out of US - all of the same time. The producer price index headline is expected at 0.6% versus 0.7% last month. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to come out at 0.2% versus 0% percent last month, and the unemployment claims are expected to come out around 315,000 versus 309,000 last week. The number to focus on, in my opinion, is the producer price index excluding food and energy. Basically, what this indicator is, it measures producer prices which constitutes for 20% of the total inflation in the US. Because such a small part of inflation, it's not a very important indicator. I personally do not like trading it so I will not be personally trading this report. I think it's too risky and too spiky; however, if you want to take your chances, I think if the core producer price index comes out at 1% or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report - because it would be strengthening U.S. dollar as inflation will be higher than it's expected, and it may cause US to eventually possibly raise interest rates. That's just how inflation indicators work: the higher it is, the better it is for the currency. On the other hand, if the producer price index core comes out at -0.5% or more negative, it would be negative for the US dollar and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This move may depend on some strong levels that they are there before the report. There also may be conflicts from the headline number and unemployment claims, but the core producer price index is what to focus on. As I said, I personally will not be trading this one but it's up to you if you do.

That's all for tomorrow, I hope we all make some money tomorrow.