Friday, June 22nd, 2007

1. Friday, June 22nd, 2007 (4:00 am New York Time) GERMANY
Tomorrow is a very slow day. Usually Fridays have big news announcements but tomorrow we do not have that many big news announcements. There is only one indicator that I will be watching and possibly trading, and that's German IFO business index. That's coming out at 4 a.m. New York time. There are three different numbers coming out for the German IFO: there is German IFO business expectations, German IFO current situation and German IFO business climate. Business climate is simply a combination of business expectations and current situations and so far it is the most watched one so I will personally be focusing on the German IFO business climate index. It is expected to come out at 108.4 versus previous month of 108.6. In December 2006 this indicator came up at 108.7 which set the record high ever for this indicator. Anything above 108.7 will be a new record high. If this index comes out at 109.5, I believe EUR/USD may possibly go up by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, this index comes out at 107.5 or lower, I think EUR/USD may possibly go down by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As always, price levels right before the report may greatly affect this move: we may see even bigger move, although at the same time possible conflicts from business expectations may alter the move so you have to which out for that.