Thursday, June 28th, 2007

Tomorrow is a big day: we have 4 things happening.

1. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
We have U.S. GDP coming out at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It is a final estimate of the first-quarter, and it is expected to come out at 0.8% but most economists expect a slightly lower reading rather than the higher one. So if the reading comes out at 1% or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP reading comes out at 0.5% or lower, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is a kind of report that may cause a breakout on the GBP/USD, so if the price is still close to 2.0000, we may see a breakout and the price may go to 2.0050 or higher. So this could be an important report that could break that level.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US GDP
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 1% or higher
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 0.5% or lower
* Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.

2. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then, later in the day at 2:15 p.m. New York time, we have a U.S. interest rates statement coming out. You can skip this one if you do not know what you are doing. Most likely they are going to keep the rate at the same level of 5.25%. If for some reason they hike a rate to 5.50%, it would be a possible sell on GBP/USD, and it would probably be good for over 100 pips. If for some reason they would cut a rate to 5.00%, it would be possible long on GBP/USD and it would be good for 100 pips or so. Unfortunately, it is probably a 1% chance of that happening, almost no chance. There will be comments accommodating this report, most likely, and it could be tradable. If Bernanke insists on the fact that housing is not that important and inflation is important and he's being hawkish, it may be a possible sell on GBP/USD. If he starts saying that housing is extremely important and they have to do a cut or have to really consider it, then we may see GBP/USD going up. But this could be really hard to trade. If you don't know what you are doing, just skip this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US Interest Rate
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if they hike rate to 5.50%
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if they cut rate to 5.00%
* Expect 100 pips move in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit
* Watch out for comments, read a detailed description how to trade that.

3. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time, we have New Zealand GDP coming out which is expected to come out at 1% versus 0.8% previous quarter. This is going to be a report for the first quarter of 2007. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, I think NZD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason it comes out at 0.7% or lower, we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even smaller deviations can cause relatively large moves but we will need to judge the price action and price levels right before the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand GBP
* Possible BUY on NZD/USD if reading comes out at 1.2% or higher
* Possible SELL on NZD/USD in reading comes out at 0.7% or lower
* Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.

4. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then, at 7:30 p.m. New York time, we have Japan CPI coming out. This is a crucial time for Japan CPI. We will have a national CPI and Tokyo CPI. National CPI always go behind Tokyo CPI. National CPI is going to be for a month of May, and Tokyo CPI is very current and it is for the month of June. The most important number will probably be a Tokyo CPI ex-food, just food, and it is expected to come out at approximately 0.1% or 0%: about half-and-half. If it comes out at 0.2%, it would be good for the Yen and USD/JPY could possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, the CPI comes out lower than expected, if it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, USD/JPY may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is crucial because there is a lot of talk whether or not Japan will raise interest rates in August, and this particular report can even make their mind for that or talk them out of raising rates. So this report could be equivalent to interest rates statement expectations that can move the market pretty big, especially that Yen has been in a very big focus recently.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Japan Tokyo CPI ex-food
* Possible SELL on USD/JPY if reading comes out at 0.2% or higher
* Possible BUY on USD/JPY if reading comes out at -0.1% or lower (more negative)
* Expect 50 pips move or more in the fist hour of the report if a trigger is hit

That's all about tomorrow. I hope you have a great day, and I hope you will make some money. I will talk to you later. Thanks so much.