Forex Trading Signal 12/12/07

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

First, we had UK Trade Balance. We were looking for a very big deviation from expectations in order to enter the trade. It came out very close to expectations so it was a no trade. There was not much price action at all within first 5 minutes but eventually GBP/USD was trading higher by about 50 pips although that was mostly due other things happening on the market.

Next one was German ZEW. It came out at -37.2 versus -34.5 expected. We were looking for a trigger of -50 to sell EUR/CAD so it was definitely a no trade.

Then we had interest rates statement out of the USA. It was expected they would cut the rates to 4.25% which they did, in fact. There was no surprise here. Some people were, however, counting on a little bit more like a discount rate cut, and they did not get it. Others were counting on a rate cut to 4.00% which did not happen either. So overall response was that the Feds are not doing enough. The release by itself got delayed by 1 minute or so don't worry about the spike up on 1 minute chart as it happened before the report. The spike took about 65 pips but the real action was on yen crosses. GBP/JPY moved hugely, about 220 pips in the first 10 minutes, and continued going lower through the session.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
We will start a day with UK Average Earnings Index + Bonuses. It is expected it will come out at 4.2% versus 4.1% last month. I think 0.3 deviation should be tradable so if it comes out at 4.5% or higher, that would be a buy signal on GBP/USD, and it may move about 30 pips in the first hour. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.9% or lower, GBP/USD may go down 30 pips or so in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA/CANADA
Then we have trade balances out of U.S. and Canada. I would stay away from them. They are not tradable recently. If I see them working fine twice in a row, I might consider going back and trade them.

3. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at -0.1%. I think 0.6 trigger should be pretty decent. If it comes out at -0.7% or more negative, I think it would be a sell signal on NZD/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, it would be a buy signal on NZD/USD.

4. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7.01 p.m. we will have RICS House Price Balance. Not really a tradable indicator but be aware of it when you are in your own trades.

5. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change. It is expected to come out at 20 K. I think as long as unemployment rate does not conflict, at 15 K deviation either way should be enough. So if it comes out at 35K or higher, you may want to buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at 5K or lower, you may want to sell AUD/USD.

That's pretty much all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!