Forex Trading Signal 12/17/07

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI coming out. It was expected to come out at 0.2%. It came out at 0.3% which hit our sell signal. We were already on down trend as GBP/USD moved down a lot before the report. At the report, the price moved from 2.0271 down to 2.0218 so it moved around 50 pips immediately. The problem was on the retracement, however. It was very difficult to manage. In fact, I had to take a loss on this trade even if eventually it went our way. USD/JPY did not work well, and EUR/USD worked much better than GBP/USD. For more detailed description, watch the video.

Let's now talk about Sunday.

1. Sunday, December 16th, 2007 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7.01 p.m. New York time we will have UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m. This one is tough to trade. It is hard to say what is going to happen. I don't really thing it is terribly tradable. If you are around, you can watch this indicator. If it comes out at 2% or higher, I would expect some pound strength, and if it comes out at -2% or more negative, I would expect some pound weakness but not too much I would be willing to put a trade on.

Let's now talk about Monday.

2. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m we will have U.S. Empire State Business Conditions Index and U.S. Current Account. Because they are coming at the same time, it is hard to say which one is going to grab the market. Most likely Empire Manufactures is more important one, and usually when it is in focus by itself a deviation of 10 or 12 can be tradable but I would skip that one.

3. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions. This indicator used to work, then it did not work, and past 3 months it started working again because of very large deviations. It is expected to come out at 49 B. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I would look to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 100 K or more positive, then I would buy USD/JPY. This is one of the financial health indicators so I think USD/JPY should work better on this one.

4. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (1:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 1:00 p.m. we will have U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index. This almost never move the market but if you trade on your own around a lunch time, keep an eye on it, especially if deviation is above 2.

That's pretty much all for Sunday and Monday. The only tradable indicator, I think, is the TIC.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!