Thursday, May 31st, 2007

1. Thursday, May 31st, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have a big boy coming out, the US GDP. This is the first revision of 1st quarter, and it may not be as important of a report as we had last month...but I think still worth trading. Consensus is very split on this one, but most expect an average reading of about 0.8% or so. I think if the reading comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be a pretty close reading to previous number of 1.3%, and I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more towards dollar strength in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the number comes out at 0.4% or lower, it would probably be bad for the dollar, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Perhaps even smaller triggers could be used, and the moves could be smaller or biggers, depending on where the price is at before the report. Please note that we also have Canadian GDP coming out at the same time...

2. Thursday, May 31st, 2007 (9:45 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Chicago PMI coming out. Though the official time of release is 9:45 am, there will be a special subscriber group receiving the number at 9:42 am. That includes secret news weapon and forexdiamonds subscribers. Chicago PMI is considered a predictor of US ISM Manufacturing that comes out on Friday, so it's usually watched, and the market can react to it by sometimes as much as 50 pips or more, though usually it's a lot less. It's expected that Chicago PMI will read around 54 or so, which is a relatively healthy reading. If it reads 57 or higher, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more. If it reads 51 or lower, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more. Again, this move will largely depend on what happened to the US GDP earlier, and where the price is at before the report.

Wednesday, May 30th, 2007

1. Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 (8:15 am New York Time) USA
We have US ADP Employment Change coming out. It's expected to come out at 115K or so. This report strategically comes out two days before Non-Farm Payroll, and gets some attention, in hopes that it should predict non-farm payroll report. If the number comes out at 180K or above, it would probably move GBP/USD down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. If the number is at 50K or lower, it would probably move GBP/USD up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. I may possibly enter on even a lesser deviation, but it would largely depend on where the price is at before the report.
UPDATE :
8:15am USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change High Impact Expected
97K <----- (NO TRADE FOR THIS NEWS)
115K
61K

2. Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) CANADA
Then we have current account coming out of Canada for the first quarter of 2007. It's widely expected to come out at 7 billion. If it comes out at 9 billion or higher, USD/CAD may possibly go down by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 5 billion or lower, USD/CAD may possibly go up by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We do have few other indicators coming out at the same time out of Canada, though the Current accout is most important. As long as there is not too much conflict on the industrial and raw material price indexes, this trade should be OK.

3. Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 (2:00 pm New York Time) USA
We have FOMC meeting minutes coming out. These could be complicated to trade, depending on what's said. So if anything, watch out for volatility around this time. I have no other comments about it, because a lot is up on the air, and will depend on the comments in the minutes. But this would be riskier trade than most other economic reports.

4. Wednesday, May 30th, 2007 (9:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
We have trade balance coming out of Australia for the month of April. It's expected to come out at around -800 million. If it comes out at -400 million or better, it would be the best reading since February of 2006, and AUD/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at -1,200 or worse, it would be a much worse than expected reading, and AUD/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. The move may largely depend on the price levels of the AUD/USD before the report, and also on the exports and imports components that the trade balance consists of.