Forex Trading Signal 03/14/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/14/08 - Today, 04:42 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

The U.S. Retail Sales came out quite weak but not weak enough to trade that. That was a no trade. If you want to know details why Yen was acting like crazy, please watch the video. To make the long story short, I am glad the trigger was not hit on this.

At 9:00 a.m. we had two interest rate statements, both came out as expected. I said you might try to enter long on EUR/NOK; it worked for a very short time but then the Norwegian bank started coming out with a lot of bullish commentary, sending EUR/NOK "south". I lost some money on that but nothing significant.

Other than that, it was a quite boring day.

Let's talk about Friday.

We will have CPI out of Euro zone but this one does not move the market at all so don't be fooled. The other Euro zone CPI that actually moves the market is released near a beginning of each month (CPI Estimate).

1. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI coming out. I will be trading Core CPI m/m, expected to come in at 0.2% The consensus is pretty strong; however, maybe about 20% of economists expect the CPI to come higher at 0.3%. The big signal would be if it comes out lower. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be weakening for the U.S. dollar, and you can take advantage of that by buying EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips or more of a price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.3% (preferably 0.4%) or higher, it would be a sell signal on EUR/USD or GPB/USD and you can expect 40 pips move as well. I would be more comfortable on lower trigger although I believe the upper trigger should work OK too.

2. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming out. This one might be worth trading if we get a big deviation here. It is expected to come out at 69.25. If it comes out at 75 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at 64 or lower, I would short USD/JPY. I would expect 20 to 25 pips of a price action here so it might be worthy to take a shoot on it.

That's all for tomorrow.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!