Forex Trading Signal 04/10/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/10/08 - Today, 05:50 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review a couple of last days.

UK Industrial Production came out a little high but not high enough to trigger a buy signal.

Australian Employment Change did not deviate too much either so another no trade there.

On Tuesday we had U.S. Pending Home Sales which came out negative but not bad enough to enter a trade.

The FOMC Minutes did not surprise either. They admitted the economy could contract in the first half of 2008 so it was a first time they officially admitted that. Other than that, there was not much to focus on - from our point of view. Please watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Underline Inflation y/y out of Norway. It is expected it will come out at 2.1%. If it comes out at 2.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/NOK and expect 300 to 400 pips move. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy EUR/NOK and also expect 300 to 400 pips price action. We will also have CPI headline m/m which is expected to come out at 0.3%, CPI headline y/y is expected to come out at 3.5% and CPI underline m/m is expected to come out at 0.6% - watch out for conflicts then.

2. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Trade Balance. I would skip this report. Recently it gave two signals which both failed and the other times it came pretty close to expectations. Perhaps it could be tradable with a big 1B trigger which is very unlikely to happen but even if it deviates by 1B, keep in mind we will also have UK Interest Rate statement so even such big deviation may not matter too much as the market is focused on more important stuff now.

3. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate decision. The market is expecting a 25 bp cut from 5.25% to 5.00% but about 16% of economists disagree and expect them to keep the rates unchanged. If they hold the rates, it would be a big, positive surprise and I would expect GBP/USD going up by at least 50 pips, if not 100, in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they cut the rates to 4.75%, it would be a good sell signal on GBP/USD, looking for at least 50 pips move. A good pair to trade might be EUR/GBP (which would be a buy signal on 50 bp cut) if you want to hold your position for a while.

4. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m. we will have Interest Rate decision out of Euro zone. It is expected they will keep the rates at 4.00% level so it is very unlikely they would cut or hike it. They don't like to surprise the public so most likely it will be a no trade here.

5a. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Jobless Claims and Trade Balance coming out. The U.S. Jobless Claims was a big mover lately. It is expected to come out at 385K. If it comes out at 408K or higher, it would be even worse number than we got last Thursday and I would enter a sell trade on USD/JPY and expect it to move around 40 pips. If it comes out at 365K or lower, it would be the lowest number in about 4 weeks, and I would buy USD/JPY and expect it to move around 40 pips too.

5b. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Trade Balance. I will skip that one.

6. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (~8:40 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Right after 8:30 a.m., usually around 8:40 a.m., we will have Trichet speaking. It can be a nice trade on EUR/USD but you need to know what you are doing or... be a DIamonds room member. If you don't know what you are doing, skip this report. If you feel you can do it, watch the video for my trade plan and suggestions.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!