Forex Trading Signal 04/15/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/15/08 - Today, 04:55 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's talk about Monday.

At 3:30 a.m. we had Swedish CPI, and everything came out pretty high. It triggered a sell signal on EUR/SEK but it did not perform too well. The initial spike was around 300 pips but it was hard to make any money on the retracement. I took a small loss on it.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK PPI but I did not recommend to trade it so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. Retails Sales. It came out exactly as expected but it was a little bit supportive for the USD/JPY. A no trade here.

At 6:45 p.m. we had CPI out of New Zealand which came out 0.1 lower but not low enough to enter a trade. Another no trade here.

At 7:01 p.m. we had UK RICS House Price Balance which deviated record low, a record decline since 1978. Initially it spiked down by about 15 pips and retraced greatly, allowing to enter a nice afterspike.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK CPI headline y/y. It is expected to come out at 2.6%. I will use 0.2 deviation on this one. If it comes out at 2.8% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.4% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If the trigger is hit, I would look for about 40 pips of a price action. It used to be one of the best indicators but recently all CPI reports lost some attention. We will also need some agreement from the core and headline numbers, both m/m and y/y. If there are any conflicts, I would stay away from trading it.

2. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we are going to have German ZEW. It is expected to come out at -30 but the range of expectations is from -22.6 to -36. Recently the economists do a pretty good job in predicting this indicator so we did not have big deviations. Last month a deviation of around 5 was able to move the market somehow. I am going to trade it with 8 deviation. If it comes out at -38 or lower (more negative), I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at -22 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD. If my trigger is hit, I would look for 25 to 30 pips of a price action but it could be even more if it agrees with the technicals.

3. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. PPI. I don't think it is going to be a big deal. We will also have Empire State Business Conditions Index which I might move the market. However, sometimes when it hits a good trigger the price moves a lot whereas the other times it does nothing. I think I want to trade more predictable reports so I would skip that one. Sometimes less is more, right?

4. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. This used to perform very well long time ago, then it stopped working, then at the end of 2007 we had three months in a row it worked well again, and then again it is not too predictable. I am going to skip this one.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!