Forex Trading Signal 04/16/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/16/08 - Today, 04:03 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK CPI. It came out lower but not low enough to enter a trade. The price moved nicely by 50 pips but it was a no trade according to my triggers.

Then we had German ZEW which gave a sell signal on EUR/USD. Initially it moved by 35 pips or so there was a pretty good reaction.

The PPI at 8:30 worked pretty well. The core number came out as expected but the headline number came out higher. The Empire State Business Conditions Index was expected to be -17 but it came out positive: +0.6. Initially USD/JPY moved by 20 pips but it kept going that direction.

The TIC came out a bit better but it was a no trade according to my standards. Of course, we can say we should have traded but sometimes I just want to avoid more risky trades. However, I am glad to see that good market reaction so I might be trading them in the future.

Let's talk about tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Average Earnings with Bonus Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 3.6%. I think it is worth trading with 0.2 deviation assuming we will not get a conflict from the unemployment rate. If it comes out at 3.4% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD; if it comes out at 3.8% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit and there are no conflicts, I would expect 35 pips of a price action.

2a. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Manufacturing Shipments coming out. I would skip this one as I think people will be focused on the U.S. indicators.

2b. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core CPI m/m (also known as X Food and Energy). It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I think it is still OK to trade 0.1 trigger on this. Last month with a big 0.2 deviation the dollar did not respond at all; in fact, GBP/USD went down a little bit and then completely reversed. Every other time the dollar responded very well so I am going to ignore what happened last month. Therefore, if it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I think it would be bad for the U.S. dollar and I would buy GBP/USD, looking for 45 pips move. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would sell GBP/USD and expect 45 pips move as well. If there are any conflicts, don't trade it.

2c. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Housing Starts. It is expected to come out at 1010 K. I would trade it with 60K trigger. If it comes out at 950 K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out at 1070 K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If my trigger is hit, I would expect 35 pips move if there are no conflicts with the other numbers.

3. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. Sometimes you can scalp a few pips with 0.5 trigger but this indicator is not too reliable.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!