Forex Trading Signal 06/13/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/13/08 - Today, 04:56 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 8:30 we got U.S. Retail Sales which came out better than expected. USD/JPY did not move too well because we also had a conflicting number from U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out higher by 14K. However, EUR/USD seems to be more independent from IJC, so we saw a very spike on EUR/USD. Well, trading the afterspike was another story here. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY retraced over 100%, probably going through SL people might set up. Probably the only big winners here were Secret News Weapon users (including myself) who took advantage of the spike, especially on EUR/USD (yum!).

Then at 6:45 p.m. we had Retail Sales out of New Zealand. The headline number came out higher whereas the core number came out lower. Luckily, they did not deviate well enough to enter a trade so it was just a no trade. The price action on NZD/USD was very nasty.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German CPI but this is not tradable because this is a final revision so please skip it.

2. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI. It seems with today's economy higher inflation may lead the Fed to raise the interest rates so the market should be paying attention to it. I think this is safe to trade 0.1 deviation on it. I would trade U.S. CPI Core, and if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy EUR/USD. In any case, I would look for 40 to 50 pips of a price action. Ideally, it would be nice to not have any conflict between core and headline numbers but if you get a conflict, the core number should be more in focus but this might be a bumpy road.

That's all for Friday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!