Forex Trading Signal 07/01/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/01/08 - Today, 02:48 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

Canadian GDP came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade. The market almost did not react.

Chicago PMI came out very close to expectations too.

Let's talk about Tuesday then.

1. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (12:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 12:30 a.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will hold the rates at 7.25% but there is a little chance we will get a surprise here. If they hike the rates t 7.50%, it would be a buy signal on AUD/USD, good for 75 to 100 pips or so. If they cut the rates, I would sell AUD/USD and look for the same targets.

2a. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have U.K. Nationwide House Prices m/m. It is expected to come out at -1 and I would use 0.5 trigger here. Two months ago it deviated by -0.6 and we saw good 35 pips move down (and eventually 55 pips) on GBP/USD but the other month we had -2.0 trigger and GBP/USD by 25 pips or so. This might be a good scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -1.5% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.5% or less negative (or positive), I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips or so.

2b. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
Also at 2:00 a.m. we will have German Retail Sales m/m. I would like to trade with with around 1.2 trigger. If it comes out at 2.0% or higher, you may buy EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, I would sell EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move as well. Last month with -2.3 deviation EUR/USD made 50 pips.

3. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI coming out. I would not trade it.

4. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 48.5, and I would use 1.2 trigger here. If it comes out at 49.7 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY; if it comes out at 47.5 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips or more in the first 30 minutes. Usually this indicator moves USD/JPY very well but last month we had only 20 pips move.

5. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales coming out. This might not be a killer trade because of the interest rate statement we would have nearly a day earlier but it might be worthy to give a try. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.

That's all for Tuesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!