Forex Trading Signal 07/03/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/03/08 - Today, 06:10 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

U.S. ADP came out -79K versus -20K expected. USD/JPY spiked down by about 30 pips and then it went down even more. EUR/USD reacted even better.


Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 we will have Interest Rate coming out of Sweden. 64% of economists are expecting them to hike the rates to 4.50% or even better to 4.75%, I would sell EUR/SEK and look for 300 pips price action. If they leave the rates unchanged, I would buy EUR/SEK and expect 300 pips move as well.

2. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 49.5. If it comes out at 50.2 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.8 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action as well.

3. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m we will have Interest Rate statement out of Euro zone. Only 1 economist out of 58 is expecting them to leave the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, EUR/USD is going to spike up a little but probably there will be a lot of people wanting to take profits so after the spike up we might see a lot of selling pressure. Therefore, I might be selling EUR/USD right after the initial spike. Please watch the video for full explanation of this strategy. If they leave the rates unchanged, it will be a clear sell signal on EUR/USD, good for 70 pips or so.

4. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll which is expected to come out at -60K. The expectation range is between -130K and -20K so no one is expecting this number to be positive. If it comes out at -15K or higher, it would be the highest reading since February and I think it will be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -110 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 50 pips move. We will also have Unemployment Rate coming out and if it is going to deviate by 0.2, this may either help a lot or screw your trade up, depending if it is supporting or conflicting with the NFP number. Higher unemployment rate is bad for the dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the dollar. We will also have Initial Jobless Claims, and deviation of 25K might be a problem or a good help, depending on which way it deviated. Higher number on Initial Jobless Claims is bad for the dollar, and lower number is good for the dollar.

5. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:35 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. Please watch the video for details about this report.

6. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out which is expected to come out at 51.0. If NFP deviated a lot, ISM Non-Manufacturing may not move the market a lot but if NFP came out as expected, people will be focused on the ISM. 1.0 deviation should move USD/JPY very well but we also had complete reversal. If it comes out at between 51.1 and 51.9, I would sell as soon as we have a spike up on USD/JPY 20 pips away from the prerelease. If it comes out at between 50.0 to 50.9, I would buy USD/JPY as soon as the price went down by 20 to 40 pips. However, if it comes out at 52.0 or higher, I would buy on the spike and expect USD/JPY to move 40 pips up. If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, I would sell on the spike and expect 40 pips move as well. Please watch the video for detailed explanation.

That's all for Thursday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!