Forex Trading Signal 07/10/08

10.7.08    

Forex Trading Signal 07/10/08 - Today, 06:24 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

UK Trade Balance and GDP out of Euro zone did not have any significant impact on currencies.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories came out lower than expected. This should had sent oil price higher, and U.S. dollar lower but we got only 15 pips price action. Oil went up by $1 and then retraced by $1 as well. At least you should not have lost money on this.

At 9:30 p.m. we had Australian Employment Change report. It came out 29.8K versus 10K expected but also unemployment rate came out lower by 0.1 than expected, helping our trade a little. It spiked up from 0.9550 to a resistance level we drew together in the Diamonds room before the report at 0.9620. In the Diamonds room we took a quick short scalp when the price spiked up 70 pips.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1a. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Norway CPI. I would just ignore it.

1b. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Also at 4:00 a.m. we will have UK Halifax HPI m/m coming out which is expected to come out at -1.0%. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger. If it comes out at 0% or higher (positive), I would buy GBP/USD; if it comes out at -2.0% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD. In either case, I would expect 25 pips price action.

2. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected it they will hold the rates at 5.00%. Only 1 economist out of 49 is expecting them to raise the rates. If they raise the rates to 5.25% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and I would expect it to move at least 75 pips. If they cut the rates to 4.75% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect at least 75 pips move as well.

3. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming out. It is expected to come out at 395K. If it comes out at 415 K or higher, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 375K or lower, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This indicator is not as good as it used to be so be extra careful.

4. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. Bernanke will be speaking.

That's all for Thursday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!