Forex Trading Signal 07/16/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/16/08 - Today, 06:15 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK CPI and we were going to trade against it. This strategy worked perfectly well. We had nearly 50 pips spike up and then we had price reversal. We made a good money on the Diamonds room.

German ZEW came out much lower than expected and it behaved similarly to the UK report. Price spiked down by over 30 pips and the price reversed.

At 8:30 a.m. we had a few U.S. reports. U.S. Retail Sales came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.

Canada did not change rates so it was a no trade.

We had a very interesting price action during Bernanke speech. Please watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have U.K. Claimant Count Change which is expected to come out at 10. I would trade it with 5 deviation. If it comes out at 15 or higher, this would be bad for GBP so I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 5 or lower, it would be good for GBP and I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips as well. We will also have Average Earnings Index and if this comes higher it is good for GBP and if it comes out lower it is bad for GBP. 0.3 deviation would be significant but over time the focus has been shifted from Average Earning Index to Claimant Count Change although avoid conflicts here.

2. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:00 a.m. we will have CPI out of Euro zone. This one is not tradable (because this is a final revision).

3. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI. LIke with the U.K CPI, we might see a nice spike up but we may also see a nice retracement so you may want to sell a potential top (or buy a potential low). Inflation itself is bad for the U.S. dollar although hiking interest rates would be good for the U.S. dollar. That's why CPI is tricky to trade. Because of that, there are no official triggers although if Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.3 or higher, you may try to cash fast profit on sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD but get out quickly after 35 to 50 pips move and reverse your transaction. If it comes out at 0.1 or lower, you might want to buy GBP/USD or EUR/USD and reverse as soon as the price moved 35 to 50 pips. My main focus will be on entering the opposite direction, not spike entry. If there are conflicts, it should help to turn it around. Please watch the video for more details.

4. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC coming out. This might be tradable but I would like to see this report performing better before trading it on my own account. I will not be trading it.

5. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher we might see 15 pips price action so you may want to buy USD/JPY for a quick scalp if spread was very small. If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, you may want to sell USD/JPY and expect 15 pips move as well. Because profit target is so small, this will not work if your broker raises spread so officially it is a no trade.

That's all for Wednesday.


Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!