Forex Trading Signal 01/31/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/31/08 - Today, 05:04 AM

Earlier today we had 3 reports coming out.

The ADP Employment Change came out at 130 K versus 40 K expected. To be more conservative, I set up 100 K trigger myself but if you were more aggressive and set up 90K trigger, than you had not bad trading opportunity. Prerelease came out at 1.9922 and we traded down about 50 pips in the first 15 minutes. After 15 minutes it was all screw up by the GDP indicator that came out very low at 0.6 versus 1.2% expected. It moved up the pound by 25 pips but the for the GDP indicator EUR/USD worked better as going up from 72 to 04 so it was 32 pips move. Because of conflicting reports and the Interest Rate report coming up in a few hours, it was good to exit rather faster than later.

Then we had U.S. Interest Rate Statement, and they did cut the rates by 0.50% to 3.00%, as expected. However, even if it was as expected, 20 to 25% of the market expected a cut by only 25 bp. That's why we saw a rally on EUR/USD, GBP/USD or AUD/USD. Within an hour the EUR/USD moved by about 120 pips so it was a huge move up. When I was trading it live, I was focused on the pound but it was not performing as well as Euro. Because the Euro gave a nice opportunity to enter at 4820, I switched to Euro. The AUD/USD performed extremely well, and you could make tons of money on that pair. If you are looking at the charts, keep in mind that the FOMC released the decision to public a few seconds early so that's why you see a price action a minute before the scheduled report.

YOU CAN LEARN MUCH MORE BY WATCHING THE VIDEO. By much more I actually mean MUCH more. In order to keep this text short, I cut a lot of stuff that Sir Pips said on the video.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Price m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.4%. I would use 0.3 trigger on this one. Keep in mind that this is a quite new indicator so don't be so sure with your decisions and consider smaller profit targets like 10 to 20 pips, If it continues going on, so be it. If it gives a really good number such as 0.6 trigger, you may try to put a long term sell trade on EUR/GBP and try to bank 100 pips over the time, or if it comes very low, you may want to buy GBP/EUR for a long term position. In the short term we trade I would use 0.3 trigger. If it comes out at -0.1% or better (0 or positive), I would look to buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and expect 25 to 30 pips of the price action on GBP/USD. If it comes out lower than expected, such as -0.7 or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY for a similar price action.

2. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 5 a.m. we will have Eurozone Estimate CPI y/y. I would trade this with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, you want to buy EUR/USD, and 2.9% or lower you want to sell EUR/USD, looking for 25 pips or more in the first half hour of the report.

3a. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP coming out. I would trade it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD, looking for 30 pips or so of the price action. If it comes out at 0 or negative, that would be weakening the Canadian dollar, and I would buy USD/CAD and look for 30 pips or so of the price action. Some people may want to trade EUR/CAD because of the U.S. reports coming out at the same time but keep in mind that if the U.S. report moves EUR/USD, it will also affect EUR/CAD.

3b. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have U.S. Core PCE. If it deviates by 0.2 which happens very rarely, it will move the market as well. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, that is going to be strengthening for the U.S. dollar, and you can go short on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 25 to 35 pips of price action. If it comes out at 0 or negative, that would be weakening for the U.S. dollar, and you want to go long on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, whichever looks better at that time. Of course, if you have all other indicators in line deviating the same way, it may move the market even more.

3c. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Also at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless claims coming out. It is expected to come out at 320 K. If there is a 20 K trigger on the initial jobless claims, you may consider entering the trade. If it comes out at 340 K or higher, that would be weakening the U.S. dollar, and I would trade USD/JPY on that ASSUMING THERE ARE NO CONFLICTS, and I would sell the USD/JPY. If it comes out at 300 K or lower, that would be third month in the row it is lower, and it would be a very positive indication that jobs are doing OK, and I would buy USD/JPY on this, expecting around 30 pips of the price action.

4. Thursday, January 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. Not a great indicator so I will not be paying attention to it.

If the video helped you, please leave a feedback.

That's all for today.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 01/10/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/10/08 - Today, 05:30 AM

Let's first review what happened yesterday.

The U.S. Pending Home Sales came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.

Australian Retail Sales deviated by 0.3 and unfortunately we missed our trigger of 0.4. There was a decent price action but it did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade.

We also had no trades on Wednesday.

Let's now talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
Tomorrow we will have the UK Trade Balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. This indicator used to perform quite well but last 3 times it failed with 700 M or even 900 M trigger as the price action went the other way. If you want to trade this, use 1000 M (1 B) deviation. Therefore, if it comes out at -8200 M or more negative, that would be weakening the pound and I would look to sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move price action to the downside on the GBP/USD. On the other hand, if it comes out at -6200 M or less negative, then it would be positive for the U.S. pound and I would expect to see 30 to 40 pips move price action to the upside on the GBP/USD.

2. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7 a.m. we will have UK Interest Statement coming out. It is expected they will hold the rate at 5.5% because they just cut rates recently. There is also 20% to 25% economists expecting them to cut the rate. Here is what I am going to do: if they keep the rates unchanged, I would probably stay away although it can be strengthening the pound a little bit. If they cut the rates, I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect 50 pips or more and 100 pips or more in the first hour, respectively.

3. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Then at 7:45 a.m. we will have Euro Zone Interest Rate Statement. It is unanimously expected they will hold the rates at 4.00%. If they hike the rates to 4.25%, you can buy EUR/USD and expect 50 pips or more price action in the first hour. If they cut the rates to 3.75% I would sell EUR/USD and expect 50 to 100 pips or more move to the downside.

4a. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a few things coming out at the same time. We will have Trichet speaking but if you want to trade what he is speaking, you need to be a little bit more advanced trader and be able to listen to his tone. If he uses the "strong vigilance" phrase it is usually very bullish and you want to buy EUR/USD. Selling EUR/USD is a bit more problematic and you really need to be more advanced trader to trade his speeches.

4b. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Building Permits. It is expected to come out at -1.7%. Recently, building indicators out of several major countries started moving the market so we can try to trade this indicator with 5.0 trigger. Therefore, if it comes out at -6.7% or more negative, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 30 pips pips price action. If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD, and expect 30 pips price action. Last two months this indicator worked very well so it is time to start focusing on it.

4c. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we also have U.S. Unemployment Claims. It is expected to come out at 345 K. Usually, a 20K trigger is sufficient to trade and you can expect 25 pips price action on USD/JPY if the trigger is hit. Therefore, if it comes out at 365 K or higher, it would be bad for the U.S. dollar so I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out at 325 K or lower, it would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY.

5. Thursday, January 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 1 p.m. we will have Bernanke speech. This also is for more advanced traders so if you are new in trading fundamentals, I would stay away. Keep an eye on some possible interesting price actions at 1 p.m.

That would be all for Thursday.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 01/08/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/08/08 - Today, 01:53 AM

Let's first review past Friday.

On Friday we had Swiss CPI. It did hit our trigger. The pre-release price on USD/CHF was 1.1128, and it traded down to as low as 1.1100 so only about 28 pips. I was expecting more especially with a very large downtrend we have been seeing all week. Unfortunately, that's all what we had. GBP/CHF traded from 2.1937 down to 2.1846 so GBP/CHF had 90 pips price action; however, it was still completely reversed.

Then we had UK Services PMI. We just missed our buy trigger. The price moved 85 pips so I wonder how many pips it would move if it did hit our trigger. GBP/JPY moved about 130 pips. If you took it because it was close to my trigger, you probably made a good money but the fact is it did not hit the trigger so it was a no trade.

Then we had the CPI out of Euro Zone. It came out exactly as it was expected so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 we had the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It came out at 18K so it did hit our buy signal on GBP/USD. Moreover, the unemployment rate came out at 5.00% with 0.2 deviation which was also pointing towards dollar weakness. They should weaken the dollar very well towards buy GBP/USD or sell USD/JPY. USD/JPY moved 100 pips in a few minutes, and it retraced back. The GBP/USD did not move up that much as it moved about 85 pips but EUR/USD moved a lot better.

Then we had ISM Non-Manufacturing, and it came out very close to expectations so it was a no trade. However, the Canadian Ivey PMI did hit our trigger. This one incredibly overreacted. It moved so quick so I did not get in, and it just kept going from 0.9922 to 1.0090. It was a lot of opportunity to buy USD/CAD on this report.

Let's now talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I think we need to be more conservative on this report and use 5.0 trigger. If it comes out at 4.7% or higher, that would be positive for the U.S. dollar, and I would buy USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips move or more. If it comes out at -5.3 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Tuesday, January 08th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.4 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.9% or higher, that would be very positive for the AUD so you can buy AUD/USD and expect 30 pips move or more. Last month the number really overreacted and we saw 77 pips move on -0.4 deviation but in earlier releases sometimes you got a little more than 20 pips so be careful despite of December release. I think 30 pips is a good expectation - if you get more, great.

That would be all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 01/04/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/04/08 - Today, 05:25 AM

Let's first review what happened today.

Both, the U.S. ADP Employment Change and U.S. Unemployment Claims came out very close to expectations so we had two no trade's, and nothing really to review.

Let's talk about Friday, then.

1. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First, at 1:45 a.m. we will have Swiss CPI coming out. I recommend you to trade y/y number with 0.2 triggers. If the Swiss CPI comes out at 2.00% or higher, then it would be strengthening the Swiss Frank, and I would short either USD/CHF for 30 pips price action, or GBP/CHF for 40 to 50 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.6% or lower, that would be weakening the Swiss Frank, and I would go long on USD/CHF or GBP/CHF, looking for 30 and 40 to 50 pips, respectively. You can make more pips on GBP/CHF but sometimes the spread is too big to take a risk. Choose a pair wisely based on your broker.

2. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 51.5. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger so if it comes out at 50.5 or lower, I would short GBP/USD, looking for 30 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at 52.5 or higher, then it would be strengthening the pound, and we should see 30 pips or more move up.

3. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. New York time we will have the ECB Estimate CPI y/y. It is expected to come out at 3.1%. If it comes out at 3.3% or higher, that would be strengthening the Euro so you can go long EUR/USD, looking for 25-30 pips price action, or more. On the other hand, if it comes out at 2.9% or lower, that would be weakening the Euro, and I would go short on EUR/USD.

4a. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Change. It is expected to come out at 70K. This indicator can give a great opportunity but is very risky as well. I would trade this with 50 trigger so 120K or higher would be a strengthening the U.S. dollar and you can go long on USD/JPY or short on GBP/USD - it would depend on the technicals right before the report. GBP/USD should be OK, and I would look for 50 pips price action. If it comes out 20K or lower, that would be weakening the U.S. dollar, and you can go short on USD/JPY or long on GBP/USD. What makes this report risky is the revision to the prior month. If the revision's deviation is greater than the actual deviation and goes the other direction, it can move the price the other way. For example: if the Non-Farm Payroll comes out at 170K it would be a big potential buy signal on USD/JPY, but if at the same time the prior month was revised down by 120K, then you actually are getting a net negative surprise because you are up 100K this month and down 120K last month, and this could actually be dollar weakening. Be careful with this indicator, then.

4b. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. there is also the Unemployment Change number. Usually it is not a big deal but if it deviates by 0.1 and especially by 0.2, it can take over the move, especially if the deviation on Non-Farm Payroll is small or none. If it comes out at 5.0%, it would be bad for the dollar and you may want to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 4.6% or lower, you may want to buy USD/JPY.

5a. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is not that great indicator, and you would be lucky to grab 20 to 25 pips of it. I would say USD/JPY is the best one to trade it; however, if the USD/JPY looks weird, you can shift to EUR/USD or GBP/USD. I would use 2.5 trigger so if it comes out at 51 or lower, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and you may want to sell USD/JPY, looking for 20-25 pips. If it comes out at 56.0 or higher, it would be good for the dollar, and you may want to buy USD/JPY, looking for 20-25 pips price action.

5b. Friday, January 4th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Canadian Ivey PMI comes out at the same time but is usually late by 5 seconds - that's what I noticed from my own experience. It is expected to come out at 51.0 would trade 3.5 trigger on this one. If you get a signal on both report, USD/CAD may move very well. If it comes out at 54.5 or higher, that would be strengthening for the Canadian dollar, and I would sell the USD/CAD or EUR/CAD, looking for 20 pips and 30 pips, respectively. If it comes out at 47.5 or lower, it would be wakening the Canadian dollar, and you may want to buy USD/CAD or EUR/CAD, and look for 20 and 30 pips, respectively.

That would be all for this week.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 01/03/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/03/08 - Today, 01:58 AM

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

The first indicator we had was UK Manufacturing PMI. Since there was some deviation, the price moved about 30 pips but it did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade.

Then we had U.S. ISM Manufacturing which hit a big downside trigger. It came out at 47.7 so it was the lowest reading since sometime in 2003, and it was a big buy signal. EUR/USD traded in the range of 1.4665 to 75 for quite a bit so there was plenty time to get in quite relatively close to the pre-release price. Then, it went up to 1.4750 within 90 minutes so it moved almost 90 pips from that level without much retracement at all. It was awesome trading opportunity, and I hope you made money on this. Due to a huge deviation, even USD/JPY worked very well moving 158 pips although I did not recommend you to trade that pair. GBP/USD did not react too well as pound was much weaker than euro before the report.

Then we had U.S. FOMC Minutes. We got what we were expecting: it was dovish but there were some mixed comments there. I thought it would weaken the dollar but it did not really end up that way. It was just not clear enough to generate decent price actions.

Tomorrow we will have two trades I will be looking at.

1. Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Employment Change. That is expected to come out at 47.5 K, and I see 33K expected from another source so that numbers may change as we are approaching to the report. Last month it came out at 189K, and it was a great trade. To be safe, a reading of -20K or more negative would be weakening the U.S. dollar in general. A reading of 100K or higher would be strengthening the U.S. dollar. I would trade this on USD/JPY. I would look to buy USD/JPY on reading of 100K or higher, and sell USD/JPY on a reading of -20K or more negative.

2. Thursday, January 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims which is expected to come out at 345K. It is a weekly indicator and recently more people are focused on it. If it comes out at 360K or higher, that should be weakening for the dollar, and it would constitute a sell signal on USD/JPY, good for 15 to 40 pips. If it comes out at 330K or lower, it would be strengthening the U.S. dollar, and it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, good for 15 to 40 pips.

That would be all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 01/02/08

Forex Trading Signal 01/02/08 - Today, 05:09 AM
Let's first review what happened on December 31st, 2007.

We had U.S. Existing Home Sales. It was expected to come out at 4.97M but originally when I recorded my signal, it was 5.00M so we were looking at 5.2 M to get into the trade. This trigger was not hit so that was a no trade.

Tomorrow we will have 3 indicators that are worthy watching and possibly trading.

1. Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
First one is UK Manufacturing PMI at 4:30 a.m. New York time. This indicator had gone a little cold towards the end of the year but last month it had a good price action. The deviation was 1.9 (if I remember correctly) and it moved GBP/USD by about 60 pips. Tomorrow it is expected to come out at 53.9. If it comes out at 55 or higher, I would like to buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, expecting about 35 and 50 pips or more, respectively. On the other hand, if it comes out at 52.5 or lower, I would like to sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, expecting 35 and 50 pips, respectively.

2. Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 50.5. On this indicator I would like to use 1.2 deviation so if it comes out at 51.7 or higher, I would look to sell either EUR/USD or GBP/USD. If it comes out at 49.3 or lower, I would look to buy EUR/USD or GBP/USD. I would expect 30 pips price action on EUR/USD and 40 pips price action on GBP/USD if the trigger is hit. You can also trade USD/CHF (reverse triggers) but I would stay away from USD/JPY as this one behaves kind of weird with this report. Sometimes USD/JPY moves like crazy, some other times it does not move at all on this indicator.

3. Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008 (2:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:00 p.m. we will have U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes. On Dec 12th, they voted for a 0.25 cut on U.S. interest rates one of the voters voted for 0.50 cut. If you are interested in trading this report, please watch the video.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Penjelasan

Dalam empat (4) hari kedepan Bank Jepang tutup karena masih dalam rangka menyambut tahun baru.

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) adalah indikator PMI dari sektor Industri. Sama dengan PMI, indikator ini didapat dari survey terhadap para Manajer Pembelian.
Jika nilai Manufacturing PMI Inggris turun maka nilai mata uang GBP akan mengalami penurunan.

Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index adalah sebuah indikator yang menghitung aktifitas bisnis dari manajer pwmbelian dari sektor manufaktur.
Jika nilai ISM Manufacturing Index Amerika turun maka nilai mata uang USD akan mengalami penurunan.

Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Prices adalah sebuah indikator yang menghitung inflasi bulanan dari barang dan jasa yang dibeli oleh seluruh perusahaan manufaktur.
Jika nilai ISM Manufacturing Prices Amerika turun maka nilai mata uang USD akan mengalami penurunan.

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