Forex Trading Signal 03/31/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/31/08 - Today, 04:13 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review Thursday first.

On Thursday we had US GDP and Jobless Claims at the same time. The Jobless claims did not deviate, and the GDP annualized came out as expected. A no trade here.

The GDP out of New Zealand came out higher than expected, triggering a buy signal on NZD/USD. Within 15 minutes the price moved by about 40 pips. I hope you made some money on it.

The Tokyo CPI came out too close to expectations to place a trade. A no trade here.

On Friday we had UK Nationwide House Prices. The m/m barely gave a sell signal but the y/y had a pretty large deviation. The price opened at 2.0007 trading down to 1.9934 within 1 hour. It was a nice, steady down move. I hope you made a good money on this.

Then we had U.S. Personal Income and Personal Spending, and Core PCE. Everything came out very close to expectations so it was a no trade. It was a little positive for the U.S. dollar; the price moved by about 28 pips. Watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Monday.

I am going to ignore the Euro Zone CPI indicators. It seems people are more focused on the growth right now.

1. Monday, March 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP coming out. The m/m is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade 0.3 deviation here. If it comes out at 0.8% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD looking for 40 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, it would be much lower than expected; therefore, I would buy USD/CAD and expect about 40 pips of a price action.

2. Monday, March 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:45 (9:42) a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. I don't recommend trading this mainly because at 9:42 a.m. the number is released to some special subscribers, and some news agencies are able to broadcast it. Therefore, you cannot trade it at 9:45 a.m. I am personally not going to trade it.

3. Monday, March 31st, 2008 (11:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 11:30 p.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement coming out. Unfortunately, they just hiked the rates so there is no way they would do it three times in a row. There is also no way they would cut it. If they would either cut or hike the rates, it would be a big price action but the chance they will do is almost 0. However, if they hike the rates to 7.50% it would be a big signal on AUD/USD. If they cut the rates to 7.00%, it would be a big sell signal on AUD/USD. Look for at least 50 pips of a price action.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 03/27 - 03/28/08 - Today, 04:39 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

First, let's talk about German IFO Business Climate Index. It came out high but not high enough to hit my trigger. I personally did not trade it. The report almost hit the trigger and also bullish comments were following it, causing EUR/USD going up from 1.5596 to 1.5635 in just first 5 minutes. Eventually it went up to to 1.5756 or so. It was a move of about 150 pips over a few hours so I will definitely pay more attention to this report next month. Sometimes I prefer to miss a good trade if I feel it would be risky to trade as I prefer have a no trade than loss.

Then we had U.S. Durable Goods X Transportation coming out. It came out much lower than expected, hitting a sell signal on USD/JPY. The price moved by only about 30 pips before it pulled back and traded in a range. There was some opportunity to take a profit but not a lot. I personally took a small loss on it.

The U.S. New Home Sales deviated by +12K so it did not hit my trigger. The prior number was revised as well, and also the median price for new houses jumped up from 220K to 244K. Raising prices, a positive deviation on regular number and positive revision all together moved up USD/JPY by about 20 pips, and then it went even higher by about 30 pips total. Nevertheless, it would be quite risky to trade.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP. Generally I would trade 0.3 or even 0.2 deviation on it; however, there is a lot uncertainty around this number. The range of expectations is wider than usually. I would like to play a little safer here. If the GDP Annualized comes out at 1% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.2% or lower, I think it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would look for 40 to 45 pips of a price action. The only thing what you should pay attention on is the Initial Jobless Claims. It is expected to come out at 370K; if it deviates by 15K or more, it may cause moves. If it comes out at 385K or higher, it would give some selling pressure on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 355 K or lower, it would add some buying pressure on USD/JPY. It would be good if that would agree with the GDP indicator should that deviate enough to give us a trade. If they conflict, I would look for a fast exit if you are in a speculative trade.

2. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (5:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then at 5:45 p.m. we will have GDP q/q out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. I would use 0.2 trigger on this but if you want to be a bit more safe, you can use 0.3 trigger here. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. If my 0.2 trigger is hit, I would expect 40 pips of a price action.

3. Thursday, March 27th, 2008 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food coming out. There are a lot of other CPIs coming out but the most important is Tokyo CPI X Fresh Food. It is expected to come out at 0.5%. I would trade it with 0.2 trigger. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, I would buy on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would sell on USD/JPY. 20 minutes later we will also get retail sales numbers but I would not worry too much about them.

Let's talk about Friday. Crazy Cat is having a spring break so he wanted to process both days same day. Keep in mind that expectations might slightly change at the time goes.

4. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (3:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 3:00 a.m we will have UK Nationwide House Prices y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.0%. This indicator has been on a steady slide ever since last summer from over 11% last summer to expected 2% this month. The monthly number is expected to come out at -0.3%. I will trade the monthly number with 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0% or positive, it would be a good buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would expect a move of about 30 pips and 45-50 pips, respectively. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, then I would sell GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and expect about the same targets here.

5. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP coming out. This is a final revision but the released number is not annualized. Everyone is expecting it to come out at 0.6%. Any deviation should be a good trading opportunity. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, that would be a buying opportunity on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and I would look for about 40-50 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 0.5% or lower, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY and look for about 40-50 pips of a price action.

6. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a bunch of U.S. indicators coming out. I think the way how to trade is to look at each indicator and see if any of them surprises. The Core PCE m/m is expected to come out at 0.1% and if it deviates by 0.2, it would be a big surprise so if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, that would be a good selling opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips of a price action. If it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, it would be a good buying opportunity on EUR/USD or GBP/USD, good for 40 pips or more as well. The Personal Spending is expected to come out at 0.1% and the Personal Income is expected to come out at 0.3%. I think 0.5 to 0.6 on either one would be a nice, tradable deviation. If it comes out high, it should cause some appreciation to the U.S. dollar, assuming the Core PCE would come out as expected. Therefore, assuming that Core PCE is not conflicting, if the Personal Spending comes out at 0.7% and/or the Personal Income comes out at 0.8%, I think it would be a decent buying opportunity on USD/JPY, looking for about 30 pips; if the Personal Income comes out at -0.2% or Personal Spending comes out at -0.5% or lower, that would be a good selling opportunity on USD/JPY, and we should see about 30 pips of a price action as well.

7. Friday, March 28th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment (final revision) - just ignore it as the final revision is not tradable at all.


That's all for Thursday and Friday. As always, watch the video for additional details - there is a lot of extra stuff there.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 03/26/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/26/08 - Yesterday, 10:52 PM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's review Tuesday first.

We just had one report coming out and that was Canadian Retail Sales. We were focused on the headline number which deviated by 0.1. Since we were looking for 0.6 deviation, it was a no trade. The core retail sales had a huge deviation, causing some price action but this move retraced very fast. Overall the price moved about 40 pips but it would be tough to make any money on it. Watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5 a.m. we will have German IFO coming out. If I traded it, I would focus on the business climate index. It is expected to come out at 103.5. I don't recommend to trade this one; however, if you really want to trade it, you can try to use 1.5 trigger on this. If it comes out at 105.0 or higher, you should see some buying pressure on the EUR/USD. If it comes out at 102 or lower, you should see some selling pressure on EUR/USD.

2. Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Core coming out (also known as X Transportation). The Core number is expected to come out at -0.3%, and I would recommend to use a trigger of 2.0 - it should be a nice, solid trigger. If it comes out at 1.7% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 35 pips of a price action. If it comes out at -2.3% or lower (more negative), that would be a pretty bad number, and I would sell USD/JPY and look for 35 pips as well. Ideally, you want to see both, the core and headline, deviating in the same direction. Also, like on the recent Canadian report, if one of them is barely deviating, you can place a trade but consider getting out pretty quickly.

3. Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have New Home Sales coming out. It is expected to come out at 578 K. I would be a little bit more aggressive on the buy side here. If it comes out at 625 K or higher, that would be worth buying the USD/JPY, looking for about 40 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 500 K or lower, that should be disappointing enough to sell USD/JPY and look for 40 pips of a price action as well.

That's all for tomorrow. As always, watch the video for additional details.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 03/25/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/25/08 - Yesterday, 06:44 PM
Hi my dear Trader

Last Thursday we had UK Retail Sales m/m. It was expected to come out at -0.2% and with the deviation of 1.2 it was a BIG buy signal on GBP/USD (the y/y deviated even more). The GBP/USD moved up about by 87 pips very quickly but then it retraced below the prerelease price, and then it moved up even more. The dollar was strengthening to the Euro at that time and this might be a reason why the retracement was so huge on GBP/USD. GBP/JPY worked better - it moved by 100 pips, then retraced about 50%, and then it moved even higher. The best pair to trade happened to be GBP/CHF - the initial move was 115 pips and it kept pushing to new highs eventually reaching 200 pips target.

On Friday we did not have anything tradable. Then we had Easter so nothing to trade on Sunday. On Monday we had U.S. Existing Home Sales but I don't recommend to trade it, especially during holidays.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales (headline) m/m. Some people focus on the core number but I prefer to focus on the headline number. However, in order to trade safe, it is good to have the two numbers complementing each other. If there is a conflict, I would stay out completely. It is expected to come out at 1.4% on m/m. I would use 0.6 trigger on the m/m headline. If it comes out at 2.0% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD, and I would expect 40 pips of price action (or more). If it comes out at 0.8% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips of price action. If it deviates by 1.5, you would probably see 70 pips move - assuming that the core number is not conflicting.

2. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Home Price Index Composite 20 y/y. I would not worry about this one.

3. Tuesday, March 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Confidence but it did not move the market well last few times so I would also forget about this. Keep an eye on it as you never know what may happen, especially if you are in a trade already.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 03/18/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/18/08 - Yesterday, 05:20 AM
Hi my dear Trader

I am sorry there was no signal yesterday; I did not feel well last weekend so I just took a day off. What a day was that that's another story - USD/JPY lost about 5% of its value in just a day so that was a big trading opportunity for sure.

Going back to Friday, we had a big signal on U.S. CPI but the market reacted very strangely, and it was very tough to trade. I personally lost on the initial price action, and then made some back on other trades following that losing one. Dollar strengthening on lower CPI did not make any sense but the market is tough right now and I guess anything can happen.

There is a lot of interesting stuff on the video which would make this signal extremely long, and I know from a fact that people want to see these signals short and straight to the point, so if you are interested in more details, please watch both videos.

Let's talk about tomorrow.

1. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (5:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:30 a.m. we will have UK CPI y/y coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.5%. We should trade 0.2 trigger on this one. If it comes out at 2.7%, that would be strengthening GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.3% or lower, it would be weakening the GBP/USD. If 0.2 trigger is hit, I would expect about 40 to 50 pips move either direction. The core CPI must deviate the same direction. If it conflicts (mostly because of oil prices), I would recommend to stay out or exiting your spike trade very quickly. The initial move should happen on the headline number but in order to keep it moving the same direction, the Core CPI cannot conflict.

2. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.3%. I will use 0.2 trigger as well. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, it would be a good selling opportunity on USD/CAD, and I will be looking for 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be a good buying opportunity on USD/CAD, good for 40 pips in the first hour as well. Similarly to UK CPI, you want to avoid any conflicts between the core and the headline number. In order to stay in a trade, the two numbers at least cannot conflict.

3. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Housing Starts and PPI. The PPI is not a big deal, I would not worry about it. The real story is if the housing number comes out high, and by high I mean high. If it is a case, then I think it would be a good buying USD/JPY opportunity. I think a good trigger would be if it comes out at 1080 K or higher. If this trigger is hit, I would expect 35 to 40 pips move in the first hour of the report.

4. Tuesday, March 18th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
The big, highly anticipated event is the FOMC Interest Rate decision. The original consensus was they were going to cut the rates by 75 bp (0.75%) from 3.00% down to 2.25%, and then they expected a cut of 50 bp, and now some of people expect them to cut by 1% (100 bp) or more. The FED fund futures increased probabilities, and now they are calling for 100% chance of 1% cut or more, and 22% chance of 1.25% cut, drastically lowering their interest rates expectations. Economists are uncertain as well, and they are looking for 0.75% cut in average, with some of them looking for 0.50% cut and some others looking for full 1% cut. I think the best way to handle it is to set expectations to 0.75% cut as I believe if they cut by 75 bp it will be very hard to tell if it is going to be supportive or disappointment for the market so most likely I will stay out of the market. I think it is tradable if they cut the rates by "only" 0.5% (50 bp) or if they cut by 1% (100 bp) or more. I think the simplest way is to trade AUD/USD (yeah, strange) as this pair worked very well in the past. If they cut the rates by 50 bp or less, that would be a sell signal on AUD/USD, look for 50 pips move in the first 15 minutes of the report. If they cut the rates by 1% or more, I would go long (buy) on AUD/USD, looking for 50 pips or more in the first 15 minutes of the report. Alternative way to trade it would be EUR/USD or EUR/JPY *BUT PLEASE WATCH the video* for more details. Also, pay attention to any possible "tape bombs" that may happen.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 03/14/08

Forex Trading Signal 03/14/08 - Today, 04:42 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

The U.S. Retail Sales came out quite weak but not weak enough to trade that. That was a no trade. If you want to know details why Yen was acting like crazy, please watch the video. To make the long story short, I am glad the trigger was not hit on this.

At 9:00 a.m. we had two interest rate statements, both came out as expected. I said you might try to enter long on EUR/NOK; it worked for a very short time but then the Norwegian bank started coming out with a lot of bullish commentary, sending EUR/NOK "south". I lost some money on that but nothing significant.

Other than that, it was a quite boring day.

Let's talk about Friday.

We will have CPI out of Euro zone but this one does not move the market at all so don't be fooled. The other Euro zone CPI that actually moves the market is released near a beginning of each month (CPI Estimate).

1. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI coming out. I will be trading Core CPI m/m, expected to come in at 0.2% The consensus is pretty strong; however, maybe about 20% of economists expect the CPI to come higher at 0.3%. The big signal would be if it comes out lower. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be weakening for the U.S. dollar, and you can take advantage of that by buying EUR/USD or GBP/USD, looking for 40 pips or more of a price action in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0.3% (preferably 0.4%) or higher, it would be a sell signal on EUR/USD or GPB/USD and you can expect 40 pips move as well. I would be more comfortable on lower trigger although I believe the upper trigger should work OK too.

2. Friday, March 14th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Michigan Consumer Sentiment coming out. This one might be worth trading if we get a big deviation here. It is expected to come out at 69.25. If it comes out at 75 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at 64 or lower, I would short USD/JPY. I would expect 20 to 25 pips of a price action here so it might be worthy to take a shoot on it.

That's all for tomorrow.
Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!