Forex Trading Signal 05/21/08

Forex Trading Signal 05/21/08 - Today, 03:20 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Hi res: Video preview for Wednesday

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

Sir Pips is out of town so I don't have video review but I was trying to trade the German ZEW myself so I can comment it. Unfortunately, it did not hit our trigger. I myself was trying to trade it with 5 trigger with the Secret News Weapon (with low spread only), but even that trigger was too high to enter a trade. EUR/USD with -4.4 deviation moved pretty well.

Then we had US PPI. It was a horrible price action as the PPI headline was in a huge conflict with the Core PPI. I hope you did not make any afterspike trade as it was written clearly to not enter a trade on conflicting numbers. I myself just overslept this report so no regrets here. Actually, it is a beautiful feeling to catch a few hours of sleep and not lose money, all at once

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 4:00 a.m. we will have German IFO. Last month the market moved by about 100 pips on EUR/USD, and Sir Pips was able to cash that move. It will be very interesting to see what the tomorrow will bring us. I would focus on IFO Business Climate which is expected to come out at 102.0. I would use 1.0 trigger here. If we get 103.0 or higher, I would buy EUR/USD, looking for 35 pips. If it comes out at 100.9 or lower, I would sell EUR/USD, looking for 35 pips as well.

2. Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At the same time, at 4:00 a.m. we will have Norway GDP coming out. If you are interested in trading this indicator, watch the video. If you are new in trading news, don't even think about trading the Norway GDP. It is a totally different animal where 400 pips spikes are normal, but you also pay high spread, and $ value per pip is totally different there. Also, you need to make sure the number did not leak or is not late as it happens quite often and probably you don't want to enter at the end of the spike.

3. Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes. It is a difficult speech to trade - not for beginners for sure. I will not be trading it, but if you want to learn more about this, please watch the video.

4. Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Core CPI m/m coming out. It is expected at 0.2%, and I think it is pretty safe to trade 0.2 trigger here. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD, looking for 40 to 50 pips. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I would buy USD/CAD, looking for 40 to 50 pips as well. For additional tips how to trade it, please watch the video.

5. Wednesday, May 21st, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:00 p.m. we will have FOMC Meeting Minutes. This is not for beginners so I don't recommend to trade it if you are new. If you have any open trades, be aware of possible spikes that may happen around 2:00 p.m.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 05/20/08

Forex Trading Signal 05/20/08 - Today, 04:59 AM
Hi my dear Trader

There was nothing tradable on Monday, and therefore there is nothing to review.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, May 20th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have German ZEW Economic Sentiment coming out. It has not been deviating greatly recently; however, we saw pretty good price actions. It is expected it will come out at -37. Even 5 trigger moved EUR/USD pretty well; I will, however, use 8 trigger on both directions. If it comes out at -35 or more negative, I would sell EUR/USD, looking for 35 pips. If it comes out at -29 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD and look for 35 pips as well. In the past it was a small indicator where you would take 15 pips profit at most, but lately it is more and more tradable. Watch out for comments that may be released after the report as they can mute or accelerate the move depending if they are conflicting or supporting the released number.

2. Tuesday, May 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. PPI coming out. The PPI out of UK did really well so chances are good this U.S. PPI might be tradable too. I would focus more on the core PPI m/m which is expected to come out at 0.2%. I would play safe here and trade this indicator with a bit wider triggers of 0.2 on either direction. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, this should be significant enough to short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, you might want to enter long on GBP/USD. In either case, I would look for 30 to 40 pips each way. However, if there are conflicts, do NOT trade with 0.2 trigger on core PPI m/m.

That's all for Tuesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 05/06/08

Forex Trading Signal 05/06/08 - Today, 02:23 AM

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Hi my dear Trader

Today we had only one report, and that was U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It came out at 52 so it was a big positive surprise and a buy signal on USD/JPY. The price moved by 20 pips so you could get in anywhere here, and then it moved another 25 pips. Eventually the price action reversed because of the oil. The short term reaction was definitely solid, however.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, May 06th, 2008 (12:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 12:30 a.m. we are going to have Australian Monetary Policy Statement. It is widely expected they will hold the rates at 7.25%. If they cut the rates to 7.00%, it would be a clear sell signal on AUD/USD. If they raise the rates to 7.50%, it would be clear buying opportunity on AUD/USD. In either case, I would expect 50 to 70 pips price move. In addition to the interest rate decision, they will also issue a statement. If the statement is hawkish (like they are expecting to hike rates soon), you may want to buy AUD/USD; if it is clearly dovish (like they might want to cut the rates by the end of summer), you may want to sell AUD/USD.

2. Tuesday, May 06th, 2008 (1:45 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 1:45 a.m. we will have Swiss CPI y/y coming out. The CPI m/m is expected to come out at 0.9%, and the y/y is expected to come out at 2.4%. I would prefer to trade CPI y/y with 0.2 deviation. If it comes out at 2.6% or higher, you may want to sell USD/CHF, looking for about 30 to 35 pips of price action. If it comes out at 2.2% or lower, it would be a good buying opportunity on USD/CHF, good for 30 to 35 pips.

3. Tuesday, May 06th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. I would trade it with 0.8 trigger. If it comes out at 52.5 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, and expect 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 50.9 or lower, then it would be a sell signal on GBP/USD or GBP/JPY, good for 30 to 40 pips as well. With a wider trigger, you can expect even bigger price move here.

4. Tuesday, May 06th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Building Permits coming out. I will be a bit more conservative here, and I will use about 3.0 trigger here. If it comes out at 4.0% or higher, I would be a sell signal on USD/CAD; if it comes out at -2.0% or more negative, then it would be a buy signal on USD/CAD. If the trigger is hit, I would expect about 30 pips price action.

5. Tuesday, May 06th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Ivey PMI out of Canada. I like this indicator, and I will use 4.0 trigger here. If it comes out at 59.0 or higher, I would sell USD/CAD. On the other hand, if it comes out at 51.0 or lower, I would buy USD/CAD. In either case, I would look for 40 pips price action.

That's all for Tuesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 05/05/08

Forex Trading Signal 05/05/08 - Today, 04:05 AM

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Hi my dear Trader

Let's review what happened last Friday.

We had only one report coming out that was worthy watching and possibly trading.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll came out better than expected by +55K but did not hit my trigger. The actual number was -20K and I was going to buy USD/JPY if it came out at least 0K or better (positive). Surely +55K deviation was a positive surprise but what really gave a lot of fuel was the unemployment rate that fell down by 0.2% from 5.2% to 5.0%. +55K deviation on Employment Change combined with -0.2% deviation on Unemployment Rate moved USD/JPY greatly. This time both reports complemented each other but imagine what would happen if they were conflicting. Anyway, based on my signal it was a no trade. For more details, please watch the video.

Let's talk about Monday.

On Monday we are going to have only one report that is worthy watching and possibly trading.

1. Monday, May 05th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we are going to have U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing. It is expected to come out at 49.1, and the expectation is coming down from 49.5. This indicator is getting hotter and hotter since they changed the method how they calculate the number so now this indicator more accurately predicts the future GDP. Therefore, it is a leading indicator for GDP and therefore it predicts what the Fed is going to do. I am going to use 1.0 trigger here. Last month 0.8 deviation moved USD/JPY by 44 pips, and in the previous month we had 67 pips move on 2.0 deviation. I believe we can get 40 to 50 pips move on 1.0 deviation on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 50 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and I would look for 40 to 50 pips move in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 40 to 50 pips as well.

That's all for Monday. Tomorrow we are going to send our signals quite early so you can prepare for the Australian Interest Rate.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!