Forex Trading Signal 07/31/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/31/08 - Today, 04:10 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's review what happened on Tuesday.

At 8:15 a.m. we had US ADP Employment change. It came out much higher than expected. EUR/USD moved very nicely, moving by over 40 pips total. USD/JPY spiked up by 29 pips and the total move was about 40 pips.

Australian Retail Sales came out much lower than expected: -1.0%. It was a huge deviation but AUD was oversold already so the move was somewhat muted. Nevertheless, if you traded the spike, you should be able to make decent money.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, July 31st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:00 a.m. we will have UK Nationwide House Prices coming out. This has not been performing well lately but with increasing focus on the housing market, we might get some price reaction. It is expected to come out at -1.2% on m/m and 7.3% on y/y. If m/m comes out at -0.7% or less negative, I would buy GBP/USD and we should see 30 pips price action. If it comes out at -1.7% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. However, be careful on sell signal.

2a. Thursday, July 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Annualized. It is expected to come out at 2.3% but the estimate range is very wide: 0.9% to 4.2%. If it comes out at 2.7% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD (be careful) and look for 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD and expect 40 pips move as well.

2b. Thursday, July 31st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Canadian GDP. Recently it was pretty much ignored, and with U.S. GDP it may be ignored this time as well. I will skip it.

3. Thursday, July 31st, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:42 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI. If you are not able to get numbers at 9:42 a.m., skip this report. It is expected to come out at 49. If it comes out at 52 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 46 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well.

That's all for today.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08 - Today, 05:37 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

There was nothing happening on Tuesday so let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have US ADP Employment Change. I think when it deviates a quite bit, it may actually move the market well. If it comes out at 0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD and I would expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -120 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD and expect 40 pips move. You may try less conservative triggers but then it may be more risky to trade.

2. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at between 0.0% and 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action as well. For additional tips how to trade this trade, please watch the video. If you trade spikes, watch out for possible numbers leaks. Also, watch out for the trade balance and in case of a big conflict, stay away from the market; however, smaller deviation on the trade balance should not be a big deal.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08 - Today, 05:37 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

There was nothing happening on Tuesday so let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have US ADP Employment Change. I think when it deviates a quite bit, it may actually move the market well. If it comes out at 0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD and I would expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -120 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD and expect 40 pips move. You may try less conservative triggers but then it may be more risky to trade.

2. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at between 0.0% and 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action as well. For additional tips how to trade this trade, please watch the video. If you trade spikes, watch out for possible numbers leaks. Also, watch out for the trade balance and in case of a big conflict, stay away from the market; however, smaller deviation on the trade balance should not be a big deal.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08 - Today, 05:37 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

There was nothing happening on Tuesday so let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have US ADP Employment Change. I think when it deviates a quite bit, it may actually move the market well. If it comes out at 0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD and I would expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -120 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD and expect 40 pips move. You may try less conservative triggers but then it may be more risky to trade.

2. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at between 0.0% and 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action as well. For additional tips how to trade this trade, please watch the video. If you trade spikes, watch out for possible numbers leaks. Also, watch out for the trade balance and in case of a big conflict, stay away from the market; however, smaller deviation on the trade balance should not be a big deal.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/30/08 - Today, 05:37 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

There was nothing happening on Tuesday so let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:15 a.m. we will have US ADP Employment Change. I think when it deviates a quite bit, it may actually move the market well. If it comes out at 0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD and I would expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -120 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY or buy EUR/USD and expect 40 pips move. You may try less conservative triggers but then it may be more risky to trade.

2. Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at between 0.0% and 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and expect 35 to 40 pips price action as well. For additional tips how to trade this trade, please watch the video. If you trade spikes, watch out for possible numbers leaks. Also, watch out for the trade balance and in case of a big conflict, stay away from the market; however, smaller deviation on the trade balance should not be a big deal.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/28/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/28/08 - Today, 06:28 AM
Hi there my Forex Friend

Let's review what happened on Friday.

UK GDP came out as expected so it was a no trade.

U.S. Core Durable Goods m/m, however, came out much higher than expected: 2.0% versus -0.2%. USD/JPY moved pretty well, almost 40 pips. Well, better skip a good move than lose money on bad move.

U.S. New Home Sales missed our target by 1K so it was a no trade. USD/JPY moved by 20 pips.

On Monday there are no news that I consider tradable.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/25/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/25/08 - Today, 05:48 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's talk about Thursday.

We had German IFO which came out much lower than expected. EUR/USD dropped by 35 pips and the total drop was about 50 pips.

Then we had UK Retail Sales which came out much lower than expected as well although we did not see as much move as I expected. It spiked down by 45 pips, however. I think this report was leaked and 30 minutes before the report we saw GBP/USD going down like crazy.

U.S. Existing Home Sales came out much lower than expected. USD/JPY moved down by about 40 pips which is not bad at all.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, July 25th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP q/q coming out which is expected to come out at 0.2%. This is what they call "advanced" number, and any deviation on the "advanced" number may move the market well. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well.

2. Friday, July 25th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Skip this.

3. Friday, July 25th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment, and this is a final revision so this should not move the market at all. Skip it.

4. Friday, July 25th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have New Home Sales coming out. I would look to trade it with 20 to 30K trigger. If it comes out at 479K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out at 531K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. In either case, I would expect 30 to 35 pips price action.

That's all for this week.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/22/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/22/08 - Today, 03:09 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's review what happened on Friday.

On Friday we had German PPI coming out. It came out higher but not high enough to buy on EUR/USD.

On Sunday we had Australian PPI but I did not trade it at all as all recent Australian PPIs have not been performing well. The deviation was pretty big and AUD/USD spiked down by 24 pips or so and then it reversed.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, July 22nd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. I prefer to trade the headline number. I would like to see 0.5 deviation on the headline number to enter a trade. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 35 pips price action. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 35 pips move as well. You do want to see an agreement with the core PPI and usually they deviate the same direction.

2. Tuesday, July 22th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 a.m. we will have Australian CPI. Last month with 0.3 deviation we saw a spike of 20 pips and eventually it moved by another 15 pips in first 30 minutes. If we have higher inflation, this would be a different situation than we would had in the USA or UK. Australian government may actually react with interest rates on the CPI numbers. I would focus on CPI Trimmed Mean q/q which is expect to come out at 1.1% If it comes out at 1.3%, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 0.9% or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips price action. If there is a conflict with the other numbers, I would look to exit quickly. Also, watch the outlook video where Sir Pips will go in details with the AUD.

That's all for Tuesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/18/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/18/08 - Today, 04:36 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 8:30 a.m. all housing numbers came out much higher than expected. In first 15 minutes, USD/JPY moved by 40 pips. I hope you made a good money on this.

At 10:00 a.m. we had Philadelphia Fed Index which came out too close to expectations to trade it.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, July 18th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German PPI. We had a pretty good move last month - 40 pips in first 40 minutes but eventually EUR/USD moved by 140 pips. If this comes out shocking, we might have a nice trade. I will be trading PPI m/m. If it expected to come out at 0.7%. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy EUR/USD and expect 30 pips move although the move might be very slow. If it comes out at 0.4% or lower, I would sell EUR/USD and expect 30 pips move as well.

That's all for this week.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/16/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/16/08 - Today, 06:15 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK CPI and we were going to trade against it. This strategy worked perfectly well. We had nearly 50 pips spike up and then we had price reversal. We made a good money on the Diamonds room.

German ZEW came out much lower than expected and it behaved similarly to the UK report. Price spiked down by over 30 pips and the price reversed.

At 8:30 a.m. we had a few U.S. reports. U.S. Retail Sales came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.

Canada did not change rates so it was a no trade.

We had a very interesting price action during Bernanke speech. Please watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have U.K. Claimant Count Change which is expected to come out at 10. I would trade it with 5 deviation. If it comes out at 15 or higher, this would be bad for GBP so I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 5 or lower, it would be good for GBP and I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips as well. We will also have Average Earnings Index and if this comes higher it is good for GBP and if it comes out lower it is bad for GBP. 0.3 deviation would be significant but over time the focus has been shifted from Average Earning Index to Claimant Count Change although avoid conflicts here.

2. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 5:00 a.m. we will have CPI out of Euro zone. This one is not tradable (because this is a final revision).

3. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI. LIke with the U.K CPI, we might see a nice spike up but we may also see a nice retracement so you may want to sell a potential top (or buy a potential low). Inflation itself is bad for the U.S. dollar although hiking interest rates would be good for the U.S. dollar. That's why CPI is tricky to trade. Because of that, there are no official triggers although if Core CPI m/m comes out at 0.3 or higher, you may try to cash fast profit on sell EUR/USD or GBP/USD but get out quickly after 35 to 50 pips move and reverse your transaction. If it comes out at 0.1 or lower, you might want to buy GBP/USD or EUR/USD and reverse as soon as the price moved 35 to 50 pips. My main focus will be on entering the opposite direction, not spike entry. If there are conflicts, it should help to turn it around. Please watch the video for more details.

4. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC coming out. This might be tradable but I would like to see this report performing better before trading it on my own account. I will not be trading it.

5. Wednesday, July 16th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher we might see 15 pips price action so you may want to buy USD/JPY for a quick scalp if spread was very small. If it comes out at -0.4% or lower, you may want to sell USD/JPY and expect 15 pips move as well. Because profit target is so small, this will not work if your broker raises spread so officially it is a no trade.

That's all for Wednesday.


Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/10/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/10/08 - Today, 06:24 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

UK Trade Balance and GDP out of Euro zone did not have any significant impact on currencies.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories came out lower than expected. This should had sent oil price higher, and U.S. dollar lower but we got only 15 pips price action. Oil went up by $1 and then retraced by $1 as well. At least you should not have lost money on this.

At 9:30 p.m. we had Australian Employment Change report. It came out 29.8K versus 10K expected but also unemployment rate came out lower by 0.1 than expected, helping our trade a little. It spiked up from 0.9550 to a resistance level we drew together in the Diamonds room before the report at 0.9620. In the Diamonds room we took a quick short scalp when the price spiked up 70 pips.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1a. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Norway CPI. I would just ignore it.

1b. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Also at 4:00 a.m. we will have UK Halifax HPI m/m coming out which is expected to come out at -1.0%. I would trade it with 1.0 trigger. If it comes out at 0% or higher (positive), I would buy GBP/USD; if it comes out at -2.0% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD. In either case, I would expect 25 pips price action.

2. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate statement. It is expected it they will hold the rates at 5.00%. Only 1 economist out of 49 is expecting them to raise the rates. If they raise the rates to 5.25% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and I would expect it to move at least 75 pips. If they cut the rates to 4.75% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect at least 75 pips move as well.

3. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Initial Jobless Claims coming out. It is expected to come out at 395K. If it comes out at 415 K or higher, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 375K or lower, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 pips move as well. This indicator is not as good as it used to be so be extra careful.

4. Thursday, July 10th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. Bernanke will be speaking.

That's all for Thursday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/09/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/09/08 - Today, 05:41 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

At 8:00 a.m. we had Bernanke Speech. There was not much reaction on EUR/USD on his comments although it seems the market appreciated his speech. Please watch the video for more details if you are interested.

At 10:00 a.m. U.S. Pending Home Sales came out low but we saw very little reaction on USD/JPY - just only 20 pips move and then we had price reversal.

That's all for Tuesday, nothing was going on.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Trade Balance. This is not tradable. Even with a big deviation last year it failed to perform.

2. Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we will have GDP out of Euro zone. I am not expecting any big moves on it and I will skip it as well.

3. Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 (10:35 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:35 a.m. we will have Crude Oil Inventories coming out of U.S. It is expected to come out at -2100 K. If it comes out at 0 or positive, that would move a stock market amy go up and U.S. dollar may appreciate so EUR/USD or GDP/USD should go down by about 20 pips, and USD/JPY may go up by 20 pips. If it comes out low at -4000K or more negative, USD/JPY may go down and EUR/USD and GBP/USD may go up by about 20 pips. Make a good judge which pair to trade before the news.

4. Wednesday, July 9th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change coming out. It is expected to come out at +10K. If it comes out at -5K or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and look for about 40 pips price action. If it comes out at +25K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 40 pips price action as well. Please watch the video for more details.

That's all for Wednesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/07/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/07/08 - Today, 03:37 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

At 6:00 a.m. we had German Factory Orders which deviated pretty well but there was no market reaction at all.

At 10:00 a.m. we had Canadian Ivey PMI coming out which came out 69.6 versus 62.25 expected. There was very little price action but if you trade it, you should be able to get out at BE.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, July 7th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Industrial Production m/m coming out which is expected to come out at -0.1%. I would recommend to use at least 0.3 trigger either direction. Last time we had +0.2 deviation GBP/USD spiked up by 15 pips and then it went the other direction. If it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips move as well.

2. Monday, July 7th, 2008 (6:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 6:00 a.m. we will have German Industrial Production. It is not tradable at this moment.

3. Monday, July 7th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Building Permits m/m coming out. Last month with a big trigger it failed to move at all. I would consider skipping it but if you really want to trade it, I would sell USD/CAD if it comes out at 0 or positive. If it comes out at -11 or more negative, this might be quite a good signal and I would buy USD/CAD and expect 25 pips move. But again, I am not sure if it is going to work well.

That's all for Monday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/04/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/04/08 - Today, 06:43 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 3:30 a.m. we had Swedish Interest Rate Statement. We got a sell signal on EUR/SEK. The price moved down by about 350 pips, retraced by 50%, and then it moved another 400 pips although that 400 pips move down was also because of Trichet speech.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK Services PMI which was a big number here. It came out at 47.1 versus 49.5. GBP/USD went down by 30 pips but that was it, we did not have any following price action.

At 7:45 a.m. we had Euro Interest Rate Statement. The plan was to sell whether there was a hike or not (on hike signal sell as soon as there was a spike up). It worked pretty well. I hope you made some money.

At 8:30 a.m. we had Non-Farm Payroll coming out which came out very close to expectations. The unemployment came out a little worse, and Initial Jobless Claims came out a little higher was well but the market reacted very well as people were expecting much worse data. After the initial spike down, USD/JPY started going up very fast. One of the reason the dollar was a king was Trichet's speech.

At 8:35 a.m. we had Trichet speaking. Amazing move and we made tons of pips.

At 10:00 a.m. we had ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out. It came out much worse than expected: 48.2 versus 51 expected. USD/JPY went down by 30 pips and totally reversed then. I got fooled with such big deviation and tried to enter on the retracement so I lost a little on this report. I should had followed my own advice although the deviation was really big.

Let's talk about Friday.

With 4th of July holiday in the United States, I think a lot of traders all around the world will take a day off, especially since it is Friday, the last working day of the week. Therefore, currencies may trade sideways or we may see creepy moves on or the other direction that normally would not happen. I will be taking a day off as I am not sure if we are going to see 10 pips or 100 pips reaction on the news announcements. If you want to trade, you may give a try but be advised that anything can happen today.

1. Friday, July 4th, 2008 (6:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 6:00 a.m. we will have German Factory Orders. This may move EUR/USD a little, some people trade it with a success before but because of the holiday I don't have any specific triggers here. Just be aware that EUR/USD may do spikes at 6:00 a.m.

2. Friday, July 4th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10.00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI. If you want to trade it, you may try to scalp with 3.0 trigger. Last month with 3.5 deviation USD/CAD moved by 25 pips so it was not a big move. Therefore, 3.0 trigger might be good enough to scalp a few pips so if it comes out at 65.3 or higher, you may try to sell USD/CAD, and if it comes out at 59.3 or lower, you may try to buy USD/CAD. We may see a nice move or ugly move here depending on how many people will be trading so obviously if the price is moving, you may try to some of the close positions as the price is moving. If the price is not moving, don't go under the water with this little report and get out at BE or small loss.

That's all for this week.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/03/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/03/08 - Today, 06:10 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

U.S. ADP came out -79K versus -20K expected. USD/JPY spiked down by about 30 pips and then it went down even more. EUR/USD reacted even better.


Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 we will have Interest Rate coming out of Sweden. 64% of economists are expecting them to hike the rates to 4.50% or even better to 4.75%, I would sell EUR/SEK and look for 300 pips price action. If they leave the rates unchanged, I would buy EUR/SEK and expect 300 pips move as well.

2. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. It is expected to come out at 49.5. If it comes out at 50.2 or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.8 or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action as well.

3. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m we will have Interest Rate statement out of Euro zone. Only 1 economist out of 58 is expecting them to leave the rates unchanged. If they hike the rates, EUR/USD is going to spike up a little but probably there will be a lot of people wanting to take profits so after the spike up we might see a lot of selling pressure. Therefore, I might be selling EUR/USD right after the initial spike. Please watch the video for full explanation of this strategy. If they leave the rates unchanged, it will be a clear sell signal on EUR/USD, good for 70 pips or so.

4. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll which is expected to come out at -60K. The expectation range is between -130K and -20K so no one is expecting this number to be positive. If it comes out at -15K or higher, it would be the highest reading since February and I think it will be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -110 K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 50 pips move. We will also have Unemployment Rate coming out and if it is going to deviate by 0.2, this may either help a lot or screw your trade up, depending if it is supporting or conflicting with the NFP number. Higher unemployment rate is bad for the dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for the dollar. We will also have Initial Jobless Claims, and deviation of 25K might be a problem or a good help, depending on which way it deviated. Higher number on Initial Jobless Claims is bad for the dollar, and lower number is good for the dollar.

5. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (8:35 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:35 a.m. we will have Trichet speaking. Please watch the video for details about this report.

6. Thursday, July 3rd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have ISM Non-Manufacturing coming out which is expected to come out at 51.0. If NFP deviated a lot, ISM Non-Manufacturing may not move the market a lot but if NFP came out as expected, people will be focused on the ISM. 1.0 deviation should move USD/JPY very well but we also had complete reversal. If it comes out at between 51.1 and 51.9, I would sell as soon as we have a spike up on USD/JPY 20 pips away from the prerelease. If it comes out at between 50.0 to 50.9, I would buy USD/JPY as soon as the price went down by 20 to 40 pips. However, if it comes out at 52.0 or higher, I would buy on the spike and expect USD/JPY to move 40 pips up. If it comes out at 49.9 or lower, I would sell on the spike and expect 40 pips move as well. Please watch the video for detailed explanation.

That's all for Thursday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 07/01/08

Forex Trading Signal 07/01/08 - Today, 02:48 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

Canadian GDP came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade. The market almost did not react.

Chicago PMI came out very close to expectations too.

Let's talk about Tuesday then.

1. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (12:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 12:30 a.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate statement. It is expected they will hold the rates at 7.25% but there is a little chance we will get a surprise here. If they hike the rates t 7.50%, it would be a buy signal on AUD/USD, good for 75 to 100 pips or so. If they cut the rates, I would sell AUD/USD and look for the same targets.

2a. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 2:00 a.m. we will have U.K. Nationwide House Prices m/m. It is expected to come out at -1 and I would use 0.5 trigger here. Two months ago it deviated by -0.6 and we saw good 35 pips move down (and eventually 55 pips) on GBP/USD but the other month we had -2.0 trigger and GBP/USD by 25 pips or so. This might be a good scalping opportunity. If it comes out at -1.5% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.5% or less negative (or positive), I would buy GBP/USD and look for 30 pips or so.

2b. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
Also at 2:00 a.m. we will have German Retail Sales m/m. I would like to trade with with around 1.2 trigger. If it comes out at 2.0% or higher, you may buy EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move. If it comes out at -0.5% or lower, I would sell EUR/USD and look for 30 pips move as well. Last month with -2.3 deviation EUR/USD made 50 pips.

3. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI coming out. I would not trade it.

4. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Manufacturing Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 48.5, and I would use 1.2 trigger here. If it comes out at 49.7 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY; if it comes out at 47.5 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY, looking for 30 pips or more in the first 30 minutes. Usually this indicator moves USD/JPY very well but last month we had only 20 pips move.

5. Tuesday, July 1st, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales coming out. This might not be a killer trade because of the interest rate statement we would have nearly a day earlier but it might be worthy to give a try. It is expected to come out at 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.

That's all for Tuesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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