Forex Trading Signal 08/01/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/01/08 - Today, 05:05 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 2:00 a.m. we had UK Nationwide House Prices which came out lower than expected. GBP/USD moved by 20 pips, and it was just only a spike. I actually trades GBP/JPY on the spike and got out very quickly, banking 12 pips profit or so.

U.S. GDP and Initial Jobless Claims came out worse than expected. All major pairs moved very, very well but price reversals were amazing as well.

U.S. Chicago PMI came out higher than expected but not high enough to enter a trade.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German Retail Sales m/m. It is expected to come out at -0.5%. If it comes out at -2.0%, I would sell EUR/USD and look for 25 to 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, I would buy EUR/USD and look for 25 to 30 pips as well.

2. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. If we get a huge deviation such as 3 or 4, we may see some market reaction; otherwise it should not move a lot. Chances are very little it will hit such big trigger.

3. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected it will come out at -75K. I would use 40K trigger here, and I think this report is highly anticipated. If it comes out at -35K or less negative, or even positive, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD or sell GBP/USD and you should see 50 pips move. If it comes out at -115K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY, or buy GBP/USD or buy EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move as well. Watch out for revisions! Also, we will have unemployment rate which is expected to come out at 5.6%. Higher unemployment is bad for U.S. dollar, and lower unemployment is good for U.S. dollar. A 0.2 deviation is a significant deviation so watch out for it.

4. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing. I don't like when it comes out same day with U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. I would trade it with 1.1 trigger. If it comes out at 50.3 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips as well.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!