Forex Trading Signal 06/30/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/30/08 - Today, 04:46 AM
Hi there my friend

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK GDP coming out. The q/q number came out lower by 0.1 than expected, and the y/y came out lower by 0.2 than expected. However, there was a big conflict with Current Account which came out -8.4 versus -12.1 expected. GBP/USD spiked down by 30 pips and retraced within 20 seconds or so, and then it went the other way.

At 8:30 a.m. we had a few U.S. reports. U.S. Personal Income came out much higher than expected, Personal Spending a little higher than expected and Core PCE lower than expected. USD/JPY went up 20 pips at most, and then retraced by 100%.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, June 30th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian GDP which is expected to come out at 0.3%. I usually recommend trading 0.3 deviation but 0.2 deviation from last month cause a great move of 60 pips on USD/CAD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well.

2. Monday, June 30th, 2008 (9:42 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:45 a.m. we will have Chicago PMI; however, some traders can get that number at 9:42 a.m. If you are not able to get it at 9:42, I would not trade it. If you are able to get that number at 9.42 a.m., I would buy USD/JPY if it comes out at 52.0; if it comes out at 44.0 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY - in either case I would look for 30 pips move.

That's all for Monday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/27/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/27/08 - Today, 03:30 AM
Hi there my forex friend

Finally we have Friday! So far it was a quite slow week, except Monday with a great IFO report. Oh, thank you for all the feedback regarding the test of performance I was doing two days ago.

Let me just quickly review what happened on Thursday. It is actually very simple: the U.S. GDP and Initial Jobless Claims came out very close to expectations so we did not get any trade here. Same applies to the homes sales.

At 6:45 p.m. we had the trade balance and GDP out of New Zealand. The GDP came out as expected but the trade balance deviated quite a bit but NZD/USD still was not tradable. That was good to stay away from the trade balance. No trade here.

Just for your record, we also had Japanese CPI, we had some good deviations and totally no reaction on the market. That's why I even did not mention about it in my signals.

On Friday we are going to have only one report that might be tradable.

1. Friday, June 27th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK GDP q/q final revision so this is unlikely to have a big deviation. Everyone is expecting it to come out at 0.4% so even 0.1 deviation should be tradable. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move. If it comes out at 0.3% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD and expect 30 pips move as well. With 0.2 deviation you may expect 50 pips move.

2. Friday, June 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have a lot of data out of U.S. I am going to skip all of them. No triggers here but if you want to know more details about it, please watch the video.

3. Friday, June 27th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment but this is a final revision so it is not tradable. Stay away from it.

That would be all for Friday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/26/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/26/08 - Today, 08:48 AM
Hi there my friend

Thank you for testing the other server yesterday. I got some interesting data and the website was working perfectly well on my computer all the time within a few hours after I sent emails. I am surprised some people had a problem to access the signal and it worries me a little. Either if you did not have any problem or you had a problem, please leave a feedback under this signal.

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday. Basically we got all the numbers close to expectations so we had no trades only. Nothing really to talk about.

Let's talk about Thursday then.

1. Thursday, June 26th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. GDP Final and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. I don't like to trade two reports but there is a way to trade it so I will be trading it. This is the final US GDP revision and the least likely to sway the markets. I would trade a 0.3 deviation looking for 40 pips on USD/JPY but most likely this is going to come out as expected. If the GDP comes out at 1.3% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 0.7% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY. Because of possible conflicts with the Initial Jobless Claims, I would not use smaller triggers.

The way how I am going to trade two reports at the same time is I will set up +/- 0.1 triggers on the GDP and program "no trade" click to click on the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report (and no clicks for buy and sell, of course). So, if it comes out as expected, then it will activate Initial Jobless Claims with the pre-programmed triggers so I would trade IJC only if the GDP comes out flat. For Initial Jobless Claims I would use 20K trigger either way. It is expected to come out at 375K. If it comes out at 395 K or higher, it would be BAD for the U.S. dollar, so I would *sell* USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 355 K or lower, it would be GOOD for the U.S. dollar and I would *buy* USD/JPY and look for similar targets. For scalping 15K can be tradable with small spread but we will also have PCE report so scalping might not be the best idea. I will not be trading smaller triggers than 20.

2. Thursday, June 26th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have US Existing Home Sales which is expected to come out at 4.96M. Quite honestly, home indicators are not the best to trade now so I would use rather more safe triggers here. 0.15 M trigger should move USD/JPT by 25-35 pips and I don't really trust this indicator to use smaller triggers. I know this is another report where I am not aggressive but we already had the best reports in this month. I would prefer to have a positive deviation because the market would appreciate it so if you really have to trade, you might try 0.1 M on positive deviation but USD/JPY will be moving very slowly so don't expect a spike where you can bank your pips. I will be trading 0.15M deviation so if it comes out at 5.11 M or higher, it would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect about 25 pips move. If it comes out at 4.81M (or even better, 4.79M) or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 25 pips move as well. Again, this is not a killer report.

3. Thursday, June 26th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 6:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand GDP q/q which is expected to come out at -0.3%. The problem is we will have a trade balance as well so this might screw up our trade. A 0.2 trigger should be enough to move NZD/USD by 35 pips. 0.1 trigger would be too risky because of possible conflict with the trade balance so it is out of question to trade such small trigger. Last quarter's 0.2 trigger made about 35 pips in 3 minutes, then retraced by 50% and then went higher so if there is no conflict with the trade balance, this might be a nice trade. Keep in mind that NZD has low liquidity so the spread might be very high, and do yourself a favor and do not trade this report with a high spread such as 20 pips. Also, make sure you get a signal on time too because sometimes the market moves before you get a signal on New Zealand reports. Assuming there is no major conflict with the trade balance, if it comes out at -0.1% (or even better, 0% or positive) I would buy NZD/USD and look for 35 pips price action. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.5% or more negative, I would sell NZD/USD and look for 35 pips price action as well.

That's all for Thursday.

Thank you very much and happy trading!

To our success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/24/08

Let's talk about Wednesday.



We are going to have two reports that might be tradable.



1. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods Ex Transportation. I would trade it with 2.0 deviation which should move USD/JPY by 35 pips. This is NOT a hot report, in my opinion. In fact, I don't trust this report and I don't like trading it but I think it is OK to try it with 2.0 deviation on the core number but be prepared to see 100% retracement. It is expected to come out at -0.9%. If it comes out at +1.1% or higher, I would go long (buy) on USD/JPY and look for 35 pips price action. If it comes out at -3.0% or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 35 to 40 pips price action as well. If you are in profit, close at least 1/2 as soon as possible because I am really afraid of a retracement here. I am going to get what the market gives immediately and run away. I would not go with smaller triggers because this report is not predictable - sometimes we get nice moves whereas other times it does not work well at all. We will also have FOMC meeting tomorrow, so the market might be more calm during news announcement. Watch out for possible conflicts with the headline number.



2. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA

At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. New Home Sales. This is also quite weak report but with 50K deviation it should be tradable or at least worthy to give a try. It is expected to come out at 511K If it comes out at 561K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect to see up to 30 pips move on USD/JPY. If it comes out at 469K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips move as well. Although I would love to have lower triggers to improve a chance of having a trade, I don't feel like I am going to trade less than 50K triggers, and even with 50K triggers I will pay a close attention to spread.



3. Wednesday, June 24th, 2008 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA

At 2:15 p.m. we will have US FOMC Interest Rate Statement. I am still working on this report but in general it seems the market is expecting no change so if they cut the rates, it would be weakening U.S. dollar, and if they hike the rates, it should be good for the U.S. dollar. Unfortunately, I would need to do more research to be more specific and probably I will have a trade plan right before the announcement.

Thank you very much and happy trading!



To our success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/24/08 -

Forex Trading Signal 06/24/08 - Today, 03:43 AM
Let's first review what happened today.

At 3:30 a.m. we had German Manufacturing PMI. It came out at 52.3 versus 53.2 expected. This was supposed to be a scalping opportunity for SNW users only because even if it deviates, it does not move a lot. I actually entered short with 5 pips spread and I took a small lost of -3 pips on it. A few people I know got a pip or two but I really blew up this trade because it was easy to get out at BE. As a matter of fact, on some of my positions I had a few pips profit which I eventually closed with such a small loss. I just installed my trading platform on a brand new system, and because everything was not set up in the order I usually had, I just lost control over what I was doing. The move was very little as well, probably because the market wanted to see the IFO data before jumping in. Like I said, this was an opportunity to get a few pips with a relatively small risk so I still think it was worthy a try. After all, -3 pips is not that bad. I made over 15 (fifteen) times more (in $) what I lost on German IFO but this small loss increased my "lost trade" count by 50% since New Year - before that trade I had only two loses in whole 2008, last one in April....

Anyway, 30 minutes later we had German IFO. It was a fantastic trade. Brilliant. Great. Beautiful. Freaking awesome. On some of my positions I took 30 pips of nearly instant profit because my broker was kind enough to let me in with 2 pips spread! I hope you made a GOOD money too. I surely did. Here is where you can learn more about the SNW: The Secret News Weapon

Well, there is nothing interesting coming out tomorrow, Tuesday. I really wish I could scalp off a few pips but I studied all tomorrow's reports and none of them seems to be worthy to take a risk to even scalp a few pips. I don't have any confidence to any of them, and if I don't, then I don't trade, and if I don't trade, I don't recommend either. So wait for my next signal for Wednesday.

Have a good day!

Thanks a lot

Forex Trading Signal 06/20/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/20/08 - Today, 06:41 AM
Hi there my friend

Friday is finally coming, and that's good because it was a busy week. I made tons of money the week so I will be glad to trade just one more report and have a little break. So far we had excellent Tuesday and even better Thursday.

Let's talk about past Thursday for a moment:

At 4:30 we had had UK Retail Sales which came out 3.5% versus -0.1% expected. It seems the economists did an excellent job by missing a prediction by that much, and every time they do that this is our opportunity to make money. I want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart to every economists that contributed in that. Thanks to you, dear economists, I am closer to have my mortgage to be paid off. Well, obviously I don't have to explain that GBP/USD moved greatly, and if anything, I just had too tight my take profit (TP) so I grabbed "only" 42 pips (in average) of leveraged trades. Well, SNW software rocks!!!! Yahoo!

Then we had Canadian CPI which unfortunately did not deviate on the core number, not even by 0.1, so it was a no trade. The headline number deviated pretty well, sending USD/CAD down by many pips.

Then we had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims. Not enough deviation to enter a trade.

At the end we had Phily Fed coming out which did not deviate well enough either. No trade.

So let's talk about Friday

1. Friday, June 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales m/m headline. A deviation of 0.6 on the headline number should be enough to move USD/CAD by 40 pips so your profit target (TP) can be say 35 pips minus spread. Canadian Retail Sales headline m/m is expected to come out at 0.6%. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, this would be good for Canadian dollar and you would sell USD/CAD. If it comes out at 0% or negative, it would be bad for the Canadian dollar and you would buy USD/CAD. Well, if it comes out negative, you might try to take even more pips on a part of your position. Just close half with regular target and try to squeeze a few more pips with another half or a quarter of your position. If that report was at 7:00 a.m. or 10:00 a.m., I would be more aggressive but in general Canadian reports at 8:30 a.m. just tend to make less pips so I cannot even be too aggressive with tighter spreads. I guess 0.5 trigger might be worthy to take under consideration, and probably I will use that trigger on some of my positions IF spread is not crazy. Some people have fixed spread, and if you have fixed spread and you trust your broker you will not be filled at the top of the spike, you might try to use 0.4 trigger but make sure you know what you are doing and don't expect big spikes with such lower trigger. Let me make it clear: a trigger of 0.4 *IS* a *very* small trigger, period, so if you ever decide to trade it, this would just be scalping meaning you have a small spread (and I mean that!) and you are ready to get out very quickly if you feel like the move is over and be ready to close at break even or a few pips loss. Like with any other type of scalping, you cannot expect to get big profits in just one trade or have 100% positive performance but you don't want to take unnecessary risk either - if you feel it is not worthy to give a try, just don't do that. Avoid trading against the trend as well. 99% chance I will not be trading 0.4 trigger because I know my broker and I will not get low enough spread to do that. Also, watch out for any possible conflicts with the core number: usually it deviates same way but still pay attention to it.

That would be all for this week!

Keep in mind that I will be trading what I wrote on my own live account so I try my best to make a good judgement. If I don't, then I will pay the price on my life account. So far, most of the time I have gains on my accounts...

If you need a software for spike trading, give a try at The Secret News Weapon - they don't pay me any commission on mentioning it, and I administer the Diamonds room rather than the SNW service. But I make a very good money on the spikes so you may give a try too. They offer 25 days money back policy so there is nothing what you can lose.

Thank you very much and happy trading!

To our success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/16/08 - Today, 05:52 AM
Hi there my friend

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

On Friday we had U.S. CPI coming out. We have been focused on the CPI Core which did not deviate at all. The CPI headline came out 0.1 higher but nevertheless, it was a no trade. A no trade signal was a good signal as the market did not care too much about the headline number.

At 9:55 a.m. we had Michigan Sentiment which came out lower but not low enough to enter a speculative trade. Another no trade here, and again the market did not move greatly either.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, June 16th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EUROZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we are going to have CPI out of Eurozone. I would skip this. Euro may or may not move so you may or may not make some money

2. Monday, June 16th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we are going to have U.S. Empire State Business Conditions Index which is expected to come out at -1.5. If it comes out at -11.5 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at +8.5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips move as well.

3. Monday, June 16th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m we are going to have U.S. TIC report. Well, the problem with this report is sometiems it moves greatly with smaller deviations, and sometimes it does not move at all with greater deviations. Also, sometimes deviations itself can be totally crazy. You might want to try to scalp a few pips if the actual number comes out negative but this might be just overtrading. In general, it is better to skip a few reports even if they move, than wake up, take a trade and lose money.

4. Monday, June 16th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. Bernanke will be speaking. This is not for beginners at all so please skip it. If you have any open trades, keep in mind that there might be some price action happening around 10 a.m.

This is pretty much all for Monday. Not much happening at all.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/13/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/13/08 - Today, 04:56 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 8:30 we got U.S. Retail Sales which came out better than expected. USD/JPY did not move too well because we also had a conflicting number from U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out higher by 14K. However, EUR/USD seems to be more independent from IJC, so we saw a very spike on EUR/USD. Well, trading the afterspike was another story here. Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY retraced over 100%, probably going through SL people might set up. Probably the only big winners here were Secret News Weapon users (including myself) who took advantage of the spike, especially on EUR/USD (yum!).

Then at 6:45 p.m. we had Retail Sales out of New Zealand. The headline number came out higher whereas the core number came out lower. Luckily, they did not deviate well enough to enter a trade so it was just a no trade. The price action on NZD/USD was very nasty.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German CPI but this is not tradable because this is a final revision so please skip it.

2. Friday, June 13th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. CPI. It seems with today's economy higher inflation may lead the Fed to raise the interest rates so the market should be paying attention to it. I think this is safe to trade 0.1 deviation on it. I would trade U.S. CPI Core, and if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy EUR/USD. In any case, I would look for 40 to 50 pips of a price action. Ideally, it would be nice to not have any conflict between core and headline numbers but if you get a conflict, the core number should be more in focus but this might be a bumpy road.

That's all for Friday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/12/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/12/08 - Today, 11:20 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

At 4:30 a.m. we had a set of UK reports but they did not deviate enough to enter a trade. However, nearly every report was bad for the GBP so they *together* were able to push GBP/USD down greatly by about 55 pips.

At 9:30 p.m. we had Australian Employment Change. It came out -19.7K versus +13.5K expected. On top of it, the unemployment came out higher by 0.1 to 4.3%. AUD/USD moved 55 pips instantly, and then it went down even more. It was hard to trade afterspike on it because you never know if it was the lowest price and it is going to retrace, or if it want to go even lower. Some SNW users made a good money on the spike, good for them (good for me too) ;-)

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, June 12th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core Retail Sales. It is expected to come out at 0.7%, and I would trade 0.5 deviation on it. If it comes out at 0.2% or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for about 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.2%, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 40 pips as well. If you want to be more risky, you can trade with 0.3 or 0.4 deviation.

2. Thursday, June 12th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have New Zealand Retail Sales. I would trade the headline number. It is expected to come out at 0.4%, and I would trade it with 0.6 deviation. If it comes out at 1% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 25 pips move. If it comes out at -0.2%, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 25 pips move as well. With larger deviation, you can expect 35 to 40 pips move.

That's all for Thursday.

If you are interested in a preview of Friday, watch the video now or wait for a separate email.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/09/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/09/08 - Today, 07:01 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's talk about Friday first.

At 7:00 a.m. we had Canadian Employment Change which came out very close to expectations.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Employment Change came out slightly better than expected and also there were no major revisions to that number, but we also got Unemployment Rate which came out higher by 0.4. It was the biggest m/m change in past 27 years. Usually 0.2 deviation is good enough to overpower the Employment Change so 0.4 deviation was like a separate trade alone. Amazing deviation but it happens only once every 27 years so next time we might see it around 2035 year. Watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, June 09th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK (weak)
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK PPI coming out. There are 6 numbers coming out, and it is hard to say which one is the most important one (watch the video for detailed analysis). If the PPI Input m/m comes out 3% or higher, AND the other numbers are deviating higher as well, then I would buy on GBP/USD and look for about 40 pips. If the PPI Input comes out at 2.2% or lower, AND all the other numbers are lower as well, then I would sell GBP/USD and look for about 40 pips as well.

2. Monday, June 09th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA (weak)
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales coming out. I will only trade it if there is a big surprise. If it comes out at 5% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If it comes out at -5.0%, then I would sell USD/JPY. In either case, I would expect 25 pips move.

Not much going on today.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/06/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/06/08 - Today, 07:16 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 3:00 a.m. we had UK Halifax House Price Index m/m which came out lower than expected. GBP/USD moved down by about 30 pips. Eventually, the price went down even more.

At 7:00 a.m. we had UK Interest Rate which came out as expected. At 7:30 a.m. we had Interest Rate statement out of Euro zone which also came out as expected.

At 8:30 a.m. we had Canadian Building Permits which came out 14.5% versus 0.5% expected. USD/CAD moved by 15 to 20 pips. We did not trade it so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. we also had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out lower by 18K. USD/JPY moved by about 30 pips, not bad at all.

At 8:30 a.m. we also had Trichet speaking. This was incredible, EUR/USD moved by about 200 pips. We had a fantastic trade on the Diamonds room where we bough at 1.5374, 1.5402 and 1.5396 and 1.5440, and we are still on some of the position so not bad profit... Please watch the video for the detailed commentary.

At 10:00 a.m we had Canadian Ivey PMI which came out 62.5 versus 59 expected. It was a weak signal, and USD/CAD moved by only 20 pips.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, June 6th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment Change. It is expected at 10K. I would trade it with 15K deviation. If it comes out at 25K or higher, I would short USD/CAD, looking for 40 to 50 pips of price action. If it comes out at -5 or more negative, I would buy USD/CAD, looking for 40 to 50 pips. Watch out for the Unemployment Rate. If there is a conflict, it may screw up the move. Higher unemployment is bad for the Canadian dollar, and lower unemployment is good for the CAD. 0.1 deviation on unemployment rate should not be a big deal but 0.2 deviation may be dangerous if conflicting with the other number.

2. Friday, June 6th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected at -60K. If it comes out at -10K or better, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 50 pips of a price action. If it comes out at -100K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY, and look for 50 pips of a price action as well. You will also need to look at revision that must deviate in the same direction. There are two rumors going on: 1) this month we will get a good number, and 2) last month is going to be revised down sharply because it was miscalculated. We will see what will happen. Also, watch out for the unemployment rate. If it deviates by 0.2 and it is in conflict with the other numbers, be very careful or even stay out. PLEASE watch the video, nearly all preview video is about NFP and some tips how to trade it.

That's all for this week.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 06/01-02(-03)/08

Forex Trading Signal 06/01-02(-03)/08 - 06-01-2008, 06:10 PM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's review what happened on Friday first.

At 2:00 a.m. we had German Retail Sales. It came out -1.7 versus 0.6. EUR/USD moved by about 50 pips although it was not possible to enter manually on the initial spike. Nevertheless, I hope you were able to make a few pips.

Then we had Swedish GDP. It did not perform very well, and also the signal was quite well unless you had an access to their local news providers. Probably I will be skipping this for a while.

The Euro CPI came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. the U.S. numbers came out pretty close to expectations so no trade here. Canadian GDP, however, came out pretty low, not low enough to enter a trade. This number was supported by GDP Annualized q/q which came out -0.3 versus 0.35. USD/CAD moved by 60 pips.

Let's talk about Sunday.

1. Sunday, June 1st, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Retail Sales coming out. Australian dollar is more in focus recently so this can be a good trade even with tighter triggers. Last month 0.2 deviation ended up working pretty well. I will trade it with 0.3 trigger. If it comes out at -0.1%, I would sell AUD/USD looking for about 30 pips of a price action. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 30 pips price move as well. With 0.5 deviation, you can see as much as 50 pips price action.

Let's talk about Monday.

I would skip CPI out of Switzerland. This has not move the market in the past few months.

Euro, German and UK Manufacturing PMI is not tradable at this moment so I would also skip them.

2. Monday, June 2nd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. In the last couple of months, the marked responded very well to higher ISM Manufacturing Index. If it comes out at 49.5, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 47.5 or lower, then I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 pips price action as well.

Let's start talking about Tuesday.

For Tuesday we will send a separate signal but there is one event we want to talk about now.

3. Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008 (12:30 a.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 12:30 a.m. we will have Australian Interest Rate Statement. It is expected they will leave the rates unchanged at 7.25%. If they decide to hike or cut, it will move the market extremely well. If they hike the rates to 7.50%, I would go long on AUD/USD, looking for 70 pips price action. If they cut the rates to 7.00%, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 70 pips as well.

That's all for now.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!