Forex Trading Signal 08/21/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/21/08 - Today, 05:43 AM

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Hi there my forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Wednesday.

On Wednesday we had Canadian Retail Sales. The headline came out nearly as expected but the core number deviated by 0.9%. USD/CAD and EUR/CAD moved down by a little but without a support from the headline number it retraced pretty fast. If you traded EUR/CAD and your spread was not crazy, probably you managed to take a few pips profit.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK Retail Sales m/m. I think I would like to see 0.5 deviation on m/m number but even 0.3 deviation can move the market. The problem with the smaller deviation is we will also get a revision and the y/y number so the smaller deviation you use, the higher risk of conflict is. With no conflict or even some support from the other numbers, 0.3 deviation should give you a nice move. The problem is you don't know if it we are going to get a conflict so I would not use such low trigger. I still think, however, 0.5 deviation should be good enough and in case of a conflict, it should be possible to exit at BE or a small loss. If you are more aggressive player, you may want to enter at 0.4 deviation. According to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at -0.2% but according to ForexFactory it is going to come out at -0.3% so let's say the consensus is -0.25%. So, if it comes out at +0.2% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.7% or lower (more negative), I would sell GBP/USD and expect 40 pips move as well. Alternatively, you can trade GBP/JPY and you may want to trade both. Recently, we see price actions retracing pretty fast so I would rather take a profit pretty soon.

2. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then at 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI Core m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.0% or negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 40 pips spike up as well. It seems a lot of trades also pay attention to the headline m/m number but because CPI reports retrace very fast, I would not use 0.2 deviation on the headline number. If you really have to trade it, try 0.3 deviation on the headline number or 0.2 deviation on the core number, whichever comes first. According to ForexFactory calendar it is expected to come out at 0.3% but according to FPA calendar it is expected to come out at 0.4% so let's say it is expected to come out at 0.35%. If the headline m/m comes out at 0.6% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips spike down. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well. I will probably enter a trade at 0.7% or 0.0% on the headline number as I am not crazy about trading CPI reports anymore. If we get a tradable deviation, you MUST take your profit immediately. This may literally retrace in 10 seconds, and it might be a good idea to enter a trade at the top or bottom of the spike in the opposite direction. Most likely I will prepare a few automatic levels to be executed should the spike occur. Of course, such trades would be much smaller than a spike trade. THIS IS A VERY RISKY REPORT TO TRADE, especially if you trade the headline number.

3. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Unemployment Claims. You may try to scalp a few pips on USD/JPY if it deviates by about 25K but that would be a small trade and be prepared to exit at BE. If it comes out at 470K or higher, that would be bad for the U.S. dollar, and I would sell USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move. If it comes out at 419K or lower, that would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 20 pips move as well.

4. Thursday, August 21st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Well, I don't know what to expect from this indicator. Sometimes the price moves pretty well, sometimes it does not move the market at all. I guess you can try to trade it with 8 deviation if you have fixed or very low spread and you are around your trading station but I most likely will skip it.

That would be all for Thursday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/20/08

Hi there toluena :)

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

Anyway, at 5:00 a.m. we had German ZEW coming out. It came out better
than expected and EUR/USD moved up by 30 pips or so. I personally
canceled the trade on one of my computers because I saw EUR/USD going
up before the report was released. On the other computer where I had
Oanda running, I made 1 pip profit. I decided to get out quickly because
of strong sell trend on EUR/USD.

Then at 8:30 a.m. we had bunch of U.S. reports. U.S. Housing Starts
did not hit my trigger so it was a no trade. I decided to skip this
report because my health was more important (and I did not expect big
moves anyway) and otherwise I would be all night and day up. It always
feels good when you skip a no trade. :)

On Wednesday we have two events:

1. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have MPC Meeting Minutes and 7-2 for hold vote
is expected. I don't trade this because I cannot set up SNW for that,
and since I live in Chicago area, that would be a middle of night so
I prefer to take a few hours sleep and wake up fresh for morning reports.
Since I will not be trading it, I do not want to recommend anything.
This is an important report and historically it was able to move GBP/USD
by a lot of pips. However, it also requires you to have paid and reliable
news providers so you can get the vote as fast as possible. What really
counts here is not only the vote but also names, that is who voted how.
This is not for beginners for sure.

2. Wednesday, August 20th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Retail Sales. This might spike up
or down, and reverse so be careful. I would trade the headline number
which is expected to come out at 0.4%. I would trade it with about
0.7 trigger here. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, it would be good
for the Canadian dollar, and I would go short (sell) on USD/CAD, looking for
35 to 40 pips. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower (more negative), I would
go long (buy) on USD/CAD, looking for 35 to 40 pips as well. What is
interesting about this report is a lot of people pay attention to the
core number as well. You may try to set up 0.7 trigger on the core number
as well, and enter a trade on either the headline or the core number,
whichever comes first. Probably smaller deviation could move USD/CAD
as well but we had huge deviations recently so I would be more careful
with smaller deviations as I am not sure how the market is sensitive
to that right now. One thing for sure, if we get a small deviation,
please take your profit rather fast. One more tip: EUR/CAD usually moves
much better...... but pay attention to its spread. Canadian Retail Sales
is a good report to trade but please don't turn a profitable trade into
losing one - take your profits fast, you can always reenter....

That would be all for Wednesday.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/18/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/18/08 - Today, 05:41 AM

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Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

We had U.S. Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence. All of them came out too close to expectations to enter a trade. Nothing to review.

Quite honestly, nothing is will be happening on Monday too. Stay away from New Zealand CPI, this is really not tradable.

1. Monday, August 18th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have RBA Meeting Minutes coming out. You cannot trade it with SNW, this is not for beginners either. If you are a pro trader, you don't need my help.

That would be all for Monday.

To Our Success!

Friday, August 15th, 2008

Hi there my Forex friend :)

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

We had German GDP coming out. It came out higher than expected and we saw a pretty nice price action on EUR/USD. It spiked up by 30 pips and eventually it went even higher.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out higher than expected. EUR/USD spiked down by about 20 pips and then it immediately reversed. I left a note for SNW users how to approach this report, I am sorry I did not leave that comment here about how dangerous this report can be. I hope you made money on the reversal or did not lose (or even make) money on the spike.

Retail Sales out of New Zealand come out higher than expected and we saw a pretty good price action on NZD/USD. Nice 35 pips move.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Empire Manufacturing Survey coming out. We should have a good trade if it deviates by 10. If it comes out at +6.0 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move. If it comes out at -14 or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY and expect 35 pips move as well. Smaller deviation should work but I would rather to stay more conservative here.

2. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. Skip it.

3. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. With 0.4 trigger we may see 15 pips move. Not worthy to take a risk. Skip it.

4. Friday, August 15th, 2008 (9:55 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:55 a.m. we will have U.S. Consumer Sentiment and I think this might work pretty well. I would use 4 trigger here. If it comes out at 66, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move. If it comes out at 58 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips move as well.

That would be all for this week.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/08/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/08/08 - Today, 04:55 AM

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Hi there my Forex friend

Let's review what happened on Thursday first.

UK Halifax came out too close to expectations so it was a no trade.

UK and Euro interest rates came out as expected so no trades there as well.

Then we had Trichet speaking. EUR/USD went down a lot but please watch the video for more information.

We also had U.S. Pending Home Sales which came out better than expected. USD/JPY moved pretty well and I hope you made some money.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, August 8th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Employment coming out. It is expected to come out at 5K. I would use 15K trigger here. If it comes out at -10K or more negative, I would buy USD/CAD and look for 30 to 40 pips in the first few minutes. If it comes out at 20K or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and expect 40 pips move as well.

That's pretty much all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/06/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/06/08 - Today, 05:25 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Tuesday.

Actually this is very simple, everything came out as expected so officially we had no trades. Sir Pips lost a little on FOMC. Watch the video if you are really interested in it. Actually, I really recommend watching it since Sir Pips talks a lot about FOMC and U.S. economy. This is preview/review blended with his outlook videos.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Monday, August 6th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Canadian Ivey PMI. Last month it deviated by +5 and we did not see much move at all. Nevertheless, I would try to trade it again. If it comes out at 66 or higher, I would sell USD/CAD and look for 30 pips move. On the other hand, if it comes out at 55 or lower, I would buy USD/CAD and expect 30 to 35 pips move as well.

2. Monday, August 6th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have Employment Change out of New Zealand. We only get this number one a quarter. Last time we had -1.2 deviation and NZD/USD went down by 100 pips. It is expected to come out at 0.2 but the expectation range is pretty wide here. If it comes out at 0.7% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD and expect 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -0.3% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD and expect 40 pips as well.

3. Monday, August 6th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 9:30 p.m. we will have Employment Change out of Australia. If it comes out at +20 K or higher, I would buy AUD/USD and look for 40 pips price action. If it comes out at -10K or lower, I would sell AUD/USD and look for 40 pips move as well. However, keep in mind we will also have Unemployment Rate coming out. Higher unemployment is bad for Australian dollar, and lower unemployment rate is good for Australian dollar. It is expected to come out at 4.3%. If it deviates by 0.2, it is a significant deviation that may help move AUD up or down if it agrees with the Employment Change or screw everything up if it is conflicting.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 08/01/08

Forex Trading Signal 08/01/08 - Today, 05:05 AM
Hi there my Forex friend

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

At 2:00 a.m. we had UK Nationwide House Prices which came out lower than expected. GBP/USD moved by 20 pips, and it was just only a spike. I actually trades GBP/JPY on the spike and got out very quickly, banking 12 pips profit or so.

U.S. GDP and Initial Jobless Claims came out worse than expected. All major pairs moved very, very well but price reversals were amazing as well.

U.S. Chicago PMI came out higher than expected but not high enough to enter a trade.

Let's talk about Friday.

1. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 2:00 a.m. we will have German Retail Sales m/m. It is expected to come out at -0.5%. If it comes out at -2.0%, I would sell EUR/USD and look for 25 to 30 pips price action. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, I would buy EUR/USD and look for 25 to 30 pips as well.

2. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. If we get a huge deviation such as 3 or 4, we may see some market reaction; otherwise it should not move a lot. Chances are very little it will hit such big trigger.

3. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It is expected it will come out at -75K. I would use 40K trigger here, and I think this report is highly anticipated. If it comes out at -35K or less negative, or even positive, I would buy USD/JPY or sell EUR/USD or sell GBP/USD and you should see 50 pips move. If it comes out at -115K or more negative, I would sell USD/JPY, or buy GBP/USD or buy EUR/USD and expect 50 pips move as well. Watch out for revisions! Also, we will have unemployment rate which is expected to come out at 5.6%. Higher unemployment is bad for U.S. dollar, and lower unemployment is good for U.S. dollar. A 0.2 deviation is a significant deviation so watch out for it.

4. Friday, August 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing. I don't like when it comes out same day with U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. I would trade it with 1.1 trigger. If it comes out at 50.3 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips price action. If it comes out at 48.1 or lower, I would sell USD/JPY and look for 30 to 40 pips as well.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!