Forex Trading Signal 12/23/07-12/28/07

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

On Friday we had UK Retail Sales. It came out a little higher than expected but it did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade. The price action was not interesting, and it was good we did not enter the trade.

Then we had Canadian GDP and Retail Sales. The Headline Retail Sales came out at 0.4 higher than expected so it did not hit our trigger. The GBP came out at 0.1 higher than expected so it also did not hit our trigger. Both indicators came out in the same direction but they did not have tradable triggers. The U.S. PCE m/m came out as expected but y/y was higher than expected. So we got quite strong data from Canada and from the U.S.A. so trading USD/CAD would be pretty hard. In Diamonds room we decided to trade EUR/CAD and it worked pretty well.

Let's now talk about this week.

1. Wednesday, December 26th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
On Wednesday, Dec 26, at 9 a.m. New York time we will have S&P/CS Composite 20 House Price Index y/y coming out of the U.S. It is expected to come out at -5.7%, and I recommend to use 0.3 triggers. If it comes out at -6% or more negative, that would be a sell signal on USD/JPY, and -5.4% or less negative would be a buy signal on USD/JPY. It is a new indicator, and it was performing pretty well past few months.

2. Thursday, December 27th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
On Thursday at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Durable Goods x Transportation and Initial Jobless Claims. The Initial Jobless Claims is expected to come out at 340K versus 346K last month. If Durable Goods comes out at 3% or higher, that would be a sell signal on GBP/USD. A reading of -2% or more negative would constitute a buy signal on GBP/USD. Then look at Initial Jobless Claims: 20K trigger should be tradable.

3. Thursday, December 27th, 2007 (6:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
We are going to have Tokyo CPI coming out. I would not trade this one.

4. Friday, December 28th, 2007 (2:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Friday at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have the UK Nationwide House Prices. It is expected to come out at -0.3%. I recommend trading 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at 0 or positive, it would be a buy signal on GBP/USD, good for 25 to 30 pips. If it comes out at -0.6% or more negative, it would be a sell signal on GBP/USD, good for 25 to 30 pips. You can also trade GBP/JPY.

5. Friday, December 28th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 10 a.m. New York time we will have the U.S. New Home Sales. If it comes out at 770K or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY, and a reading of 670K or lower would give a sell signal on USD/JPY with about 30 pips profit target.

That would be all for this week.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades. Happy Holidays!

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/21/07

First of all, on Wednesday we had German IFO but it was not tradable so it was a no trade.

Then we had the BOE Minutes, and they expected 7 to 2 vote for the cut of the interest rates. As I said, 9-0 would create some pound weakness, and this is what happened. Within first 15 minutes we saw 100 pips move on GPB/USD, and eventually it moved 250 pips from the pre-release price. It was a very market moving signal: a great signal and a great trade.

On Thursday we had the UK GDP coming out. The q/q came out as expected, and y/y came out at 0.1 higher, and the Current Account came out low. It was, however, not enough to enter the trade so it was a no trade. There was no reliable price action as it did not hit any tradable trigger.

Then we had U.S. GDP coming out. It also came out exactly as expected so there was no way to trade this report.

Then we had New Zealand GDP coming out. We were looking for a 0.2 trigger. It only hit 0.1 trigger on q/q and y/y so it did not let us get into the trade. It moved the market 25 pips in first few seconds, and then it went back to the pre-release price. A 0.1 deviation was quite risky to trade although it somehow worked this time.

Let's now talk about Friday.

1. Friday, December 21st, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m New York time we will have UK Retail Sales m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I recommend you to trade 0.3 trigger so if it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, GBP/USD may go down about 40 pips. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, GBP/USD may move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2ab. Friday, December 21st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few reports coming out: Canadian GDP and Retail Sales. I would focus on the Headline Retail Sales. For some reasons, the headline was moving market a little bit better recently. I would trade it with a 0.6 trigger so if it comes out at -0.9 or more negative, that would be a buy USD/CAD signal. If it comes out at 0.3 or higher, that would probably be a sell USD/CAD signal. Look for 30 to 35 pips either direction if the trigger his hit. The retails sales is in general more powerful than the GDP; however, if the GDP hits a 0.2 trigger from 0.1 expected, this would be tradable too. So if Canadian Retail Sales comes out as expected, then if GDP comes out at 0.3 or higher, it would be a sell USD/CAD signal, and a -0.1 or more negative reading would be a buy USD/CAD signal.

2c. Friday, December 21st, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Also at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. Core PCE m/m coming out. This one deviates very rarely. However, if it does deviate by 0.2, it should create a significant dollar move. It happens maybe one a year so it is not very likely to happen; however, if it does happen, then, I think, it would be worth trading. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, then it would be a sell GBP/USD signal. If it comes out at 0 or negative, it would be a buy GBP/USD signal. If the trigger is hit, expect a 40 pips move either way.

To sum up, focus first on the Canadian Retail sales, then on the Canadian GDP, and then on the U.S. Core PCE m/m.

That would be all for this week.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Teknikal Analisis

USD/JPY - Dollar Yen
Short term (Intraday)
113,46. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. There is an horizontal range between 112,80 and 113,50. Support and resistance are given by Bollinger bands. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should continue on 114,00 (50 pips) resistance.

Resistances
113,50 - 114,00
Supports
113,30 - 113,00 - 112,80
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 18 déc 2007 12:41 GMT
Short term (Intraday)
113,46. USD JPY is in an uptrend supported by 1H exponential moving averages. USD JPY is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. There is an horizontal range between 112,80 and 113,50. Support and resistance are given by Bollinger bands. The volatility is low. Bollinger bands are flat. ForexTrend 1H, 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. The uptrend should continue on 114,00 (50 pips) resistance.

Resistances
113,50 - 114,00
Supports
113,30 - 113,00 - 112,80
Long term chart
USD/JPY - Dollar Yen

updated 18 déc 2007 12:41 GMT

updated 18 déc 2007 12:41 GMT

Forex Trading Signal 12/17/07

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI coming out. It was expected to come out at 0.2%. It came out at 0.3% which hit our sell signal. We were already on down trend as GBP/USD moved down a lot before the report. At the report, the price moved from 2.0271 down to 2.0218 so it moved around 50 pips immediately. The problem was on the retracement, however. It was very difficult to manage. In fact, I had to take a loss on this trade even if eventually it went our way. USD/JPY did not work well, and EUR/USD worked much better than GBP/USD. For more detailed description, watch the video.

Let's now talk about Sunday.

1. Sunday, December 16th, 2007 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7.01 p.m. New York time we will have UK Rightmove House Price Index m/m. This one is tough to trade. It is hard to say what is going to happen. I don't really thing it is terribly tradable. If you are around, you can watch this indicator. If it comes out at 2% or higher, I would expect some pound strength, and if it comes out at -2% or more negative, I would expect some pound weakness but not too much I would be willing to put a trade on.

Let's now talk about Monday.

2. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m we will have U.S. Empire State Business Conditions Index and U.S. Current Account. Because they are coming at the same time, it is hard to say which one is going to grab the market. Most likely Empire Manufactures is more important one, and usually when it is in focus by itself a deviation of 10 or 12 can be tradable but I would skip that one.

3. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions. This indicator used to work, then it did not work, and past 3 months it started working again because of very large deviations. It is expected to come out at 49 B. If it comes out at 0 or negative, I would look to sell USD/JPY, and if it comes out at 100 K or more positive, then I would buy USD/JPY. This is one of the financial health indicators so I think USD/JPY should work better on this one.

4. Monday, December 17th, 2007 (1:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 1:00 p.m. we will have U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index. This almost never move the market but if you trade on your own around a lunch time, keep an eye on it, especially if deviation is above 2.

That's pretty much all for Sunday and Monday. The only tradable indicator, I think, is the TIC.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/14/07

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

At 3:30 a.m. we had Swiss Interest Rate statement. They left the rate unchanged so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 we had U.S. Retail Sales. It doubled my trigger I gave you, and also the PPI came out in the same direction. USD/JPY opened at 111.90, and in the first 15 minutes it moved 40 pips, and then it went even higher, moving total of 55 pips from pre-release price. To learn why I traded USD/JPY, not GBP/USD, please watch the video. I speak a lot about it on the video, and I strongly encourage you to watch it. Anyway, I hope you made a good money on this report.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Friday, December 14th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
We will have only one tradable indicator, and that is Core CPI coming out of the U.S. It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I think this is worthy to trade with any deviation. If it comes out at 0.1% or lower, that would be dollar weakening so buy signal on GBP/USD, and we can expect 35 to 50 pips move or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 0.3% or higher, we can expect a sell signal on GBP/USD, good for 35 to 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. The CPI is less in focus than it used to be so we may get a choppy price action but still quite important.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US Core CPI
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.1% or lower
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 0.3% or higher

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/13/07

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

First, we had UK Average Earnings + Bonus. It came out at 4.0 so it did not hit our sell trigger. We also got the unemployment rate a little bit better so there was a little conflict. We did see a 25 pips surprise action; however, it was not able to maintain itself because of that conflict.

Then we had New Zealand retail sales. It came out at -0.7 so it hit out sell trigger. It moved 30 pips in first a few seconds, and then it traded down another 15 pips or so. It was never able to break lows but within first hour did not pulled up either. When I was trading live and was done with reading numbers, the price was already at 7865 so there was not much opportunity to trade after-spike here.

Then we had RICS House Price Balance coming out. I said to just be aware of it but not necessarily trade it. The number came out pretty big, and we traded it in the room. It worked OK so I will try to give more official signal next month. It was not a big move but it moved slow enough so you could make quite a nice profit on it. Anyway, it was only 18 pips move so it was definitely not the most important indicator that would turn the market.

Last one was Australian Employment Change. This one was really bad. It came out 52.6 so it was a very big deviation and a very strong buy signal. However, the rare thing what happened, and this happens only maybe once a year, we got a BIG conflict on the unemployment rate. It deviated by 0.2 from 4.3% expected to 4.5%, and it was a conflict so you never know what may happen next. Usually such conflict does not happen but once a while it does. It spiked up 35 pips very quickly, and without unemployment conflict such level would held but because of that conflict the price went back to pre-release price very quickly. I took loss on this trade. Well, this is what happens if you trade Forex - you cannot be right 100% times.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 3:30 New York time we will have Swiss Interest Rate coming out. It is expected to come out at 2.75%. About 16% of economists are expecting them to hike the rate. If they do hike to 3.00%, it will be a clear sell signal on the GBP/CHF, good for 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they leave the rate unchanged, unless you are very experienced I would recommend you stay out because the price action will all depend on comments. If they cut the rate to 2.50%, then would be a buy signal, good for 50 to 70 pips but this will not happen.

2. Thursday, December 13th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have a few indicators. I would skip CAD manufacturing shipments as it was not performing well at all. I would focus on the U.S. Core Retail Sales. It is expected to come at 0.6%. If it comes 0% or lower, that would be weakening U.S. dollar, and I would sell the USD/JPY because of equity correlation, good for 30 pips. On the other hand, if it comes out at 1.2% or higher, it would be strengthening U.S. dollar and equities, and I would buy USD/JPY and expect 30 to 40 pips. If the PPI conflicts, then it may be a problem and I would consider staying out.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/12/07

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

First, we had UK Trade Balance. We were looking for a very big deviation from expectations in order to enter the trade. It came out very close to expectations so it was a no trade. There was not much price action at all within first 5 minutes but eventually GBP/USD was trading higher by about 50 pips although that was mostly due other things happening on the market.

Next one was German ZEW. It came out at -37.2 versus -34.5 expected. We were looking for a trigger of -50 to sell EUR/CAD so it was definitely a no trade.

Then we had interest rates statement out of the USA. It was expected they would cut the rates to 4.25% which they did, in fact. There was no surprise here. Some people were, however, counting on a little bit more like a discount rate cut, and they did not get it. Others were counting on a rate cut to 4.00% which did not happen either. So overall response was that the Feds are not doing enough. The release by itself got delayed by 1 minute or so don't worry about the spike up on 1 minute chart as it happened before the report. The spike took about 65 pips but the real action was on yen crosses. GBP/JPY moved hugely, about 220 pips in the first 10 minutes, and continued going lower through the session.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
We will start a day with UK Average Earnings Index + Bonuses. It is expected it will come out at 4.2% versus 4.1% last month. I think 0.3 deviation should be tradable so if it comes out at 4.5% or higher, that would be a buy signal on GBP/USD, and it may move about 30 pips in the first hour. On the other hand, if it comes out at 3.9% or lower, GBP/USD may go down 30 pips or so in the first hour of the report.

2. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA/CANADA
Then we have trade balances out of U.S. and Canada. I would stay away from them. They are not tradable recently. If I see them working fine twice in a row, I might consider going back and trade them.

3. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (4:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand. It is expected to come out at -0.1%. I think 0.6 trigger should be pretty decent. If it comes out at -0.7% or more negative, I think it would be a sell signal on NZD/USD. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, it would be a buy signal on NZD/USD.

4. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7.01 p.m. we will have RICS House Price Balance. Not really a tradable indicator but be aware of it when you are in your own trades.

5. Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change. It is expected to come out at 20 K. I think as long as unemployment rate does not conflict, at 15 K deviation either way should be enough. So if it comes out at 35K or higher, you may want to buy AUD/USD. If it comes out at 5K or lower, you may want to sell AUD/USD.

That's pretty much all for tomorrow.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/11/07

Let's first talk about Monday.

Today we had the UK PPI and US Pending Home Sales. PPI came out a little above expectations but the pound (GBP/USD) actually went down a little bit and traded sideways for about 10 minutes before resuming already established up trend.

Then we had Home Sales, and it came out above expectations: 0.6% versus -0.1%. We got only 10 pips of price action towards U.S. dollar strength, and then it came back to the pre-release price and continued to trade above that level.

Let's now talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, December 11th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have UK Trade balance coming out. It is expected to came out at -7.4 B versus 7.8 B last month. This indicator has been disappointing with smaller deviations so this indicator will probably need a deviation of 1 B or more. If it comes out at -8.5 B or more negative, it would be a sell signal on GBP/USD, good for 25 to 35 pips or so. On the other hand, if it comes out at -6.4 B or less negative, it should be a positive reaction on the pound, so GBP/USD should go up by 25 to 35 pips or so. It has been a quite shaky indicator recently but with such deviation it should still be tradable.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Trade Balance
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be -8.5 B or more nagative
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be -6.4 B or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 25 to 35 pips or more in the first hour of the report

2. Tuesday, December 11th, 2007 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. New York time we will have German ZEW economic sentiment. This indicator needs about 15-25 deviation to move enough well. It is expected to come out at -34.5 versus -32.5 last month. If it comes out at -50 or more negative, EUR/USD may go down 20 to 30 pips or more. On the other hand, if it comes out at -20 or less negative, EUR/USD may go up by 20 to 30 pips or so in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: German ZEW
* Sell on EUR/USD if the number will be -50 or more negative
* Buy on EUR/USD if the number will be -20 or less negative
* If the trigger is hit, expect 20 to 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report

3. Tuesday, December 11th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2.15 p.m. New York time we will have U.S. Interest Rate Statement. It is expected they will cut rates from 4.50% to 4.25%. The futures are pricing in about 20% chance they may cut rates by 50 bp to 4.00%. If they cut the rates to 4.00%, it would be a buy signal on GBP/USD causing some major dollar weakness, and we should see a move of 70 to 100 pips or more. If they keep the rates unchanged at 4.50%, that would be dollar-strengthening, and we should see GBP/USD going down by 70 to 100 pips or more. If they cut the rates to 4.25% then the market reaction is going to be highly dependent on the statement released by Bernanke, and that is subject to a lot of interpretations. They have been pretty hawkish after the last cut but nobody listened to them and GBP/USD gained. That's why it is tough to say how the market is going to react to such comments. Unless you are experienced, I would stay away from it.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US Interests Rate Statement
* Sell on GBP/USD if they keep it unchanged
* Buy on GBP/USD if they cut the rates to 4.00%
* NO TRADE if they cut to 4.25%
* If the trigger is hit, expect 70 to 100 pips or more.

That's all for tomorrow.
Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Daily Trading Signal for 12/10/07

Let's first review what happened on Friday.

On Friday we had two indicators that were worth watching and possibly trading.

First, we had Canadian Employment Change m/m. A trigger of 20K would enter us into the trade. It came out higher than 35 K, it actually came out at 42.6. USD/CAD droped from 1.130 down to about 1.0009 so it was a move of 121 pips in the first 5 to 10 minutes of the report. It was a very quick move. It was, however, tough to enter if you did not have Secret News Weapon because the best price to do that was around 45 to 60. My ForexDiamonds subscribers definitely made some money on this one.

At 8:30 New York time we had U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. We were willing to sell GBP/USD if this came out at 150K or higher. It actually came out at 94 K so the price moved about 25 pips but according to my triggers it was a no trade.

Let's now talk about Monday.

Next Monday is kind of slow news day.

1. Monday, December 10th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK PPI. I don't suggest trading this indicator. UK said they were very concerned about the inflation, it will be moderated until next year so I don't think this indicator is a key indicator. It also had very unreliable price actions in the past. I would just stay away from that one.

2. Monday, December 10th, 2007 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales. This number can have very large deviations because is measured in a percentage bases. Sometimes it may create big moves but other times it may fake you out. Last two trades were quite poor. I recommend you to just stay away from this indicator.

So actually it seems nothing interesting will be going on on Monday. We will have a quite few interesting indicators on Tuesday but I will preview them in my next signal that I will be sending on Monday.

Thank you very much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/06/07

Let's first talk about yesterday.

On Tuesday we had Australian Interest Rate statement which came out same as expected. Australian GDP was also same as expected. My partner from Diamonds room was able to make some money on Interest statement but the GDP report was a no trade.

Earlier today we talked about the Services PMI. It came out very close to expectations so that was a no trade.

Then we had ADP Non-Farm Employment change. It came out at 189,000. I told you if it comes out about 100,000, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Well, it actually moved by 60 pips in the first 30 minutes of the report. Of corse it was a lot more because the deviation was a lot bigger. I hope you were able to make some money on this indicator.

US ISM Manufacturing came out very close to expectations. That was a no trade.

New Zealand Interest rate statement also was as expected so it was a no trade.

Let's now talk about tomorrow.

1. Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m New York time we will have UK Industrial Production coming out which is expected at 0.2%. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if we see Industrial Production coming out at 0.6% or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This indicator is a tricky one, and we may see a bigger move but be careful on this one, and try to get your entries as close to pre-release price as possible. If you cannot do that, don't chase it.

2. Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
Then at 7 a.m. New York time we will have UK Interest Rate Statement coming out. This is going to be a hot indicator. About 70% economists expect UK to keep the rate unchanged at 5.75%, and there is quite a few people that expect them to cut the rate. If the UK cuts the rate to 5.50%, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they keep the rate unchanged, and there is no statement, we may see GBP/USD recover by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If they keep the rate unchanged but there is a statement that they are planning to cut in the future, then skip this report as it would be a no trade as there can be a very ugly price action.

3. Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Then at 7:45 a.m. New York time we will have Euro Zone Interest Rate Statement. It is expected they are going to keep it unchanged. Most likely nothing will happen here.

4. Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have Trichet speaking. Be aware of some price actions at this time but unless you are able to watch this report and be able to make decisions on the fly, I do not have any trade plan for you right now. All will depend on what he says.

5. Thursday, December 06th, 2007 (6:50 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then at 6:50 p.m. we will have Japanese GDP coming out which is a revision of the number that has already come out. Most likely nothing will happen here. Even if there is a deviation, Yen does not move on this revisions too much. However, be aware of higher spreads but I do not think there is going to be any trading opportunity there.

ONE MORE THING
There is one more thing I was going to say: starting tomorrow my partner Tim (who is running the Diamonds room) will be taking over these signals, and he will be sending you these trading signals. He is a very competent trader as well, and I am sure you will enjoy his analyses.

That's all for this signal. Once again thank you for reading my signals. I wish you good luck!

Thanks

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 12/04 - 12/05/07

On Friday we had the Swiss CPI coming out, and it came out at 1.8 (annual number), and I told you if we saw 1.7 or higher, we would possibly see USD/CHF going down by around 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It did not quite happen that way as it moved only 35 pips in the first hour of the report. Nevertheless, I hope you made money on this.

Then we had the Canadian GDP which did not hit my trigger so that was a no trade as it came out exactly as expected.

On Sunday we had Australian Trade Balance coming out. I told you if it comes out at -2.8 B or more negative, it would be a possible sell on AUD/USD. We saw -3 B so it was supposed to go down by 30 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report. It, however, went down by 12 pips, and then it retraced to the pre-release price where it stayed for a while. If you made just a few pips, or lost a few, that's OK - it was a quite doggy report. If you got a good entry, you should be at least break even.

On Monday we had the UK Manufacturing PMI. I said it was worthy to observe but not necessarily to trade. However, this time it was a killer move. It came out much better than expected, and we saw GBP/USD moving by about 100 pips in the first 45 minutes of the report, and then it went even higher than that. If you were able to take advantage of that, congratulations. Next month we will prepare better for it.

The ISM Manufacturing came out pretty close to expectations so that was a no trade.

Australian Retail sales came out at 0.2%, and we also had a revision in the same direction. My trigger was 0.2% or below, and I was expecting AUD/USD to move down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It actually moved by 70 pips, it was truly a beautiful trade. I hope you took advantage of it and made some money. This move was pretty quick so if you did not make money, there will be other opportunities in the future.

Let's now talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, December 04th, 2007 (5:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 5:30 p.m. we will have Interest Statement coming out of Australia. It is expected they are going to keep the rate unchanged, and most likely there will be no comments so most likely nothing is going to happen here. If there are some comments towards rate hikes, AUD/USD may possibly gain 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there are comments towards future rate curs, AUD/USD may possibly lose 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As I said, most likely nothing will happen.

2. Tuesday, December 04th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 7:30 p.m. we will have Australian GDP. It is expected to read 1%. If it reads at 1.3% or higher, AUD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the reading is 0.7% or less, I think AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Australian GDP
* Buy on AUD/USD if the number will be 1.3% or higher
* Sell on AUD/USD if the number will be 0.7% or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Let's now talk about Wednesday.

3. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Services PMI. I think this indicator is worth watching and possibly trading. It is expected to come out at 52.7. If it reads at 55 or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly gain 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if this indicator reads at 50.5 or below, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK Services PMI
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 55.0 or higher
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 50.5 or lower
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

4. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (8:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:15 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment. It is expected to read at 50,000 versus 106 K last month. If it reads at 0 or negative, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report simply because it would be a negative reading for the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, if we see a reading of 100 or above then we may see GBP/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: ADP Non-Farm Employment
* Buy on GBP/USD if the number will be 0 or negative
* Sell on GBP/USD if the number will be 100 or more
* If the trigger is hit, expect 40 pips or more in the first 30 minutes of the report

5. Wednesday, December 05th, 2007 (3:00 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we will have New Zealand Interest Rate Statement coming out. It is expected they will keep the rate unchanged, and start cutting rates towards first quarter of 2008. If they drop their dovish tone, and talk about possibility to do more hikes, then NZD/USD may possibly gain 100 pips or more in the first 3 hours of the report. On the other hand, if they say need to cut the rates quicker than it was thought previously, NZD/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If there are no comments, or comments are the same or neutral, then it is a no trade here.

That's all for this signal.
Thank you so much, and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!