Forex Trading Signal 04/22/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/22/08 - Today, 05:58 AM

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Hi there

I hope you had a nice weekend. There was not much going on past 4 days

Today I have text based signal only.

Let's talk about Tuesday then.

1. Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 9:00 EST we have Bank of Canada Interest Rate decision. Expectations are for a cut of 0.50% from 3.50% to 3.00%; however, there are about 20% of economists thinking they will cut a less agressive 0.25%. I think this gives us a good opportunity for a 2-way trade. If they cut rates by only 0.25%, it will be clearly strengthening for the CAD and would be a great sell signal on the USD/CAD good for about 50 pips. If they cut by 0.50%, while it is expected... there are bound to be some speculators doubting that they'll put out a drastic cut, so it will give us a nominal/weak buying opportunity on USD/CAD that should be good for 40 pips.

Summary:
0.50% cut, Buy USD/CAD looking for 40 pips but be careful
0.25% cut, Clear Sell on USD/CAD looking for 50 pips


2. Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 we have US Existing Home Sales, but I'd leave this one alone.

3. Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
At 21:30 we have Australian Quarterly Trimmed Mean CPI expected at 0.9%. If it comes out at 1.1% or higher, that would be a buy AUD/USD signal, and 0.7% or lower would be a sell signal on AUD/USD - either good for 40 pips or more in the first hour. Try to make sure the other CPI figures come out roughly in the same direction. If there is a strong conflict, either exit quickly or stay out, but keep in mind that the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median numbers should be the most powerful.

The other numbers are expected as follows:
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY - 3.8%
RBA Weighted Median QoQ - 0.9%
RBA Weighted Median YoY - 4.0%
RBA Headline CPI QoQ - 1.1%
RBA Headline CPI YoY - 4.0%

Good luck trading everyone!

Forex Trading Signal 04/17/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/17/08 - Yesterday, 01:53 AM

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Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus which came out a little higher but not high enough to enter a trade. It was a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. CPI which came out exactly as expected so no trade here either. We also had U.S. Housing Starts which barely hit our sell signal on USD/JPY. This report moved USD/JPY by around 20 pips, then retraced completely, and then it moved down by about 30 pips. It was possible and easy to make a few scalps so I hope you made a few pips here.

At 9:15 a.m. we had U.S. Industrial Production which did not hit our trigger so it was a no trade. USD/JPY moved up by about 15 pips so it was not worthy to trade with 0.4 deviation. A no trade call was a good call here.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, April 17th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 7:00 a.m. we will have Canadian CPI. I will be trading Core CPI m/m. It is expected to come out at 0.3%. If it comes out at 0.5% or higher, I would sell USD/CAD; if it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I would buy USD/CAD. If the trigger is hit, I would look for 40 pips of a price action. Make sure there is an agreement with the y/y number, and also be aware of the headline numbers. If there is a conflict with the headline numbers, the core number should win although the price move might be very muted so I would look for an exit as soon as possible.

2. Thursday, April 17th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have Philadelphia Fed Index coming out. I like this indicator more and more, and I would trade it with about 10 trigger. If it comes out at -25 or lower, I would short USD/JPY. If it comes out at -5 or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If the trigger is hit, I would expect about 35 pips of a price action here. This indicator performed very well in the past so it is worthy to take a look this time.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

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Forex Trading Signal 04/16/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/16/08 - Today, 04:03 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK CPI. It came out lower but not low enough to enter a trade. The price moved nicely by 50 pips but it was a no trade according to my triggers.

Then we had German ZEW which gave a sell signal on EUR/USD. Initially it moved by 35 pips or so there was a pretty good reaction.

The PPI at 8:30 worked pretty well. The core number came out as expected but the headline number came out higher. The Empire State Business Conditions Index was expected to be -17 but it came out positive: +0.6. Initially USD/JPY moved by 20 pips but it kept going that direction.

The TIC came out a bit better but it was a no trade according to my standards. Of course, we can say we should have traded but sometimes I just want to avoid more risky trades. However, I am glad to see that good market reaction so I might be trading them in the future.

Let's talk about tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Average Earnings with Bonus Index coming out. It is expected to come out at 3.6%. I think it is worth trading with 0.2 deviation assuming we will not get a conflict from the unemployment rate. If it comes out at 3.4% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD; if it comes out at 3.8% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit and there are no conflicts, I would expect 35 pips of a price action.

2a. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Manufacturing Shipments coming out. I would skip this one as I think people will be focused on the U.S. indicators.

2b. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Core CPI m/m (also known as X Food and Energy). It is expected to come out at 0.2%. I think it is still OK to trade 0.1 trigger on this. Last month with a big 0.2 deviation the dollar did not respond at all; in fact, GBP/USD went down a little bit and then completely reversed. Every other time the dollar responded very well so I am going to ignore what happened last month. Therefore, if it comes out at 0.1% or lower, I think it would be bad for the U.S. dollar and I would buy GBP/USD, looking for 45 pips move. If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, it would be good for the U.S. dollar and I would sell GBP/USD and expect 45 pips move as well. If there are any conflicts, don't trade it.

2c. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will also have Housing Starts. It is expected to come out at 1010 K. I would trade it with 60K trigger. If it comes out at 950 K or lower, I would sell USD/JPY. If it comes out at 1070 K or higher, I would buy USD/JPY. If my trigger is hit, I would expect 35 pips move if there are no conflicts with the other numbers.

3. Wednesday, April 15th, 2008 (9:15 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:15 a.m. we will have U.S. Industrial Production. Sometimes you can scalp a few pips with 0.5 trigger but this indicator is not too reliable.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/15/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/15/08 - Today, 04:55 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's talk about Monday.

At 3:30 a.m. we had Swedish CPI, and everything came out pretty high. It triggered a sell signal on EUR/SEK but it did not perform too well. The initial spike was around 300 pips but it was hard to make any money on the retracement. I took a small loss on it.

At 4:30 a.m. we had UK PPI but I did not recommend to trade it so it was a no trade.

At 8:30 a.m. we had U.S. Retails Sales. It came out exactly as expected but it was a little bit supportive for the USD/JPY. A no trade here.

At 6:45 p.m. we had CPI out of New Zealand which came out 0.1 lower but not low enough to enter a trade. Another no trade here.

At 7:01 p.m. we had UK RICS House Price Balance which deviated record low, a record decline since 1978. Initially it spiked down by about 15 pips and retraced greatly, allowing to enter a nice afterspike.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we are going to have UK CPI headline y/y. It is expected to come out at 2.6%. I will use 0.2 deviation on this one. If it comes out at 2.8% or higher, I would buy GBP/USD. If it comes out at 2.4% or lower, I would sell GBP/USD. If the trigger is hit, I would look for about 40 pips of a price action. It used to be one of the best indicators but recently all CPI reports lost some attention. We will also need some agreement from the core and headline numbers, both m/m and y/y. If there are any conflicts, I would stay away from trading it.

2. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (5:00 a.m. New York Time) GERMANY, EURO ZONE
At 5:00 a.m. we are going to have German ZEW. It is expected to come out at -30 but the range of expectations is from -22.6 to -36. Recently the economists do a pretty good job in predicting this indicator so we did not have big deviations. Last month a deviation of around 5 was able to move the market somehow. I am going to trade it with 8 deviation. If it comes out at -38 or lower (more negative), I would sell EUR/USD. If it comes out at -22 or less negative, I would buy EUR/USD. If my trigger is hit, I would look for 25 to 30 pips of a price action but it could be even more if it agrees with the technicals.

3. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. PPI. I don't think it is going to be a big deal. We will also have Empire State Business Conditions Index which I might move the market. However, sometimes when it hits a good trigger the price moves a lot whereas the other times it does nothing. I think I want to trade more predictable reports so I would skip that one. Sometimes less is more, right?

4. Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 (9:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 9:00 a.m. we will have U.S. TIC. This used to perform very well long time ago, then it stopped working, then at the end of 2007 we had three months in a row it worked well again, and then again it is not too predictable. I am going to skip this one.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/14/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/14/08 - Today, 04:00 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened on Thursday.

On Thursday we had Norway CPI. The headline came out low but the underlined inflation was as expected so it was a no trade which was a good thing.

UK did cut the rates as expected so no trade here.

The interest rates did not change in Euro Zone so it was a no trade as well.

At 8:30 we had Canadian trade balance with a significant deviation of +1.5 B. The U.S. trade balance, however, came out much lower as it deviated by about -5 B from the expectation. We also had U.S. Initial Jobless Claims which came out much lower than expected. Lower U.S. trade balance is bad for the U.S. dollar but lower Jobless Claims is actually good for the U.S. dollar so it was a big conflict here. Based on the Jobless Claims we were looking for a long trade on USD/JPY but because of the trade balance, USD/JPY spiked down a little although within next 10 minutes it actually not only retraced but USD/JPY was climbing higher and higher. People who entered on the spike and put a lot of faith on the Jobless Claims were able to exit at BE or even make a decent profit. Those who entered on the spike but did not want to risk a lot, usually took a few pips loss. Because of such big conflict, it was hard to make a call on the "afterspike" trade.

We also had Trichet speaking and his speech was quite bullish.

Let's talk about Monday.

1. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (3:30 a.m. New York Time) SWEDEN
At 3:30 a.m. we will have Swedish CPI coming out. The underline inflation m/m is expected to come out at 0.5% and the underline inflation y/y is expected to come out at 2.1%. If the underline inflation y/y comes out at 2.3% or higher, that would be a good sell signal on EUR/SEK, and I would expect it to move by around 400 pips. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy EUR/SEK and also look for around 400 pips move. It would be very good if there was some help from headline m/m and y/y number but it is not completely necessary - just make sure they are not conflicting.

2. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK PPI but it is a very weird report. I would just skip that one.

3. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Retail Sales X Autos (also known as "Core"). It is probably the most important indicator in this week. I will try to trade it on USD/JPY. It is expected to come out at 0.1%, and I would trade it with 0.5 deviation. If it comes out at 0.6% or higher, it would be a good buy signal on USD/JPY. If it comes out at -0.4% or more negative, it would be a good sell signal on USD/JPY. If my trigger is hit, I would expect USD/JPY moving by around 40 pips. Also, try to avoid conflicts with the headline number here.

4. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
At 6:45 p.m. we will have CPI q/q out of New Zealand. We have this indicator only once every three months. It is expected to come out at 0.8%. This indicator is not that hot and chances are good if we hit 0.2 to 0.3 trigger, NZD/USD may move 25 to 30 pips and consolidate then. However, this time we have a bit better time of a release - it is not near NY close like it used to be so NZD/USD can get more attention. If it comes out at 1.0% or higher, I would buy NZD/USD; if it comes out at 0.6% or lower, I would sell NZD/USD. In either case I would look for 30 pips move.

5. Monday, April 14th, 2008 (7:01 p.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:01 p.m we will have UK RICS House Price Balance coming out. I would skip that one but if it comes out very positive like -50 or better (less negative), it may move GBP/USD or GBB/JPY quite well but again, I would not worry too much about this report.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/11/08

Hi there :)

On Friday we are going to have U.S. Consumer Sentiment coming out
but it is not a tradable report at this stage of U.S. economy.

Have a nice weekend then!

Forex Trading Signal 04/10/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/10/08 - Today, 05:50 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review a couple of last days.

UK Industrial Production came out a little high but not high enough to trigger a buy signal.

Australian Employment Change did not deviate too much either so another no trade there.

On Tuesday we had U.S. Pending Home Sales which came out negative but not bad enough to enter a trade.

The FOMC Minutes did not surprise either. They admitted the economy could contract in the first half of 2008 so it was a first time they officially admitted that. Other than that, there was not much to focus on - from our point of view. Please watch the video for more details.

Let's talk about Thursday.

1. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (4:00 a.m. New York Time) NORWAY
At 4:00 a.m. we will have Underline Inflation y/y out of Norway. It is expected it will come out at 2.1%. If it comes out at 2.3% or higher, I would sell EUR/NOK and expect 300 to 400 pips move. If it comes out at 1.9% or lower, I would buy EUR/NOK and also expect 300 to 400 pips price action. We will also have CPI headline m/m which is expected to come out at 0.3%, CPI headline y/y is expected to come out at 3.5% and CPI underline m/m is expected to come out at 0.6% - watch out for conflicts then.

2. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Trade Balance. I would skip this report. Recently it gave two signals which both failed and the other times it came pretty close to expectations. Perhaps it could be tradable with a big 1B trigger which is very unlikely to happen but even if it deviates by 1B, keep in mind we will also have UK Interest Rate statement so even such big deviation may not matter too much as the market is focused on more important stuff now.

3. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (7:00 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 7:00 a.m. we will have UK Interest Rate decision. The market is expecting a 25 bp cut from 5.25% to 5.00% but about 16% of economists disagree and expect them to keep the rates unchanged. If they hold the rates, it would be a big, positive surprise and I would expect GBP/USD going up by at least 50 pips, if not 100, in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if they cut the rates to 4.75%, it would be a good sell signal on GBP/USD, looking for at least 50 pips move. A good pair to trade might be EUR/GBP (which would be a buy signal on 50 bp cut) if you want to hold your position for a while.

4. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (7:45 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
At 7:45 a.m. we will have Interest Rate decision out of Euro zone. It is expected they will keep the rates at 4.00% level so it is very unlikely they would cut or hike it. They don't like to surprise the public so most likely it will be a no trade here.

5a. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Jobless Claims and Trade Balance coming out. The U.S. Jobless Claims was a big mover lately. It is expected to come out at 385K. If it comes out at 408K or higher, it would be even worse number than we got last Thursday and I would enter a sell trade on USD/JPY and expect it to move around 40 pips. If it comes out at 365K or lower, it would be the lowest number in about 4 weeks, and I would buy USD/JPY and expect it to move around 40 pips too.

5b. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. we will have Canadian Trade Balance. I will skip that one.

6. Thursday, April 10th, 2008 (~8:40 a.m. New York Time) EURO ZONE
Right after 8:30 a.m., usually around 8:40 a.m., we will have Trichet speaking. It can be a nice trade on EUR/USD but you need to know what you are doing or... be a DIamonds room member. If you don't know what you are doing, skip this report. If you feel you can do it, watch the video for my trade plan and suggestions.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/09/08 Number 2

Forex Trading Signal 04/09/08 - Yesterday, 05:27 AM
Hi there my friend

Let's talk about Wednesday then.

1. Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Industrial Production m/m coming out. It is expected it will came out at 0.1%. Quite honestly, this is not my favorite report to trade. I will give a shot with 0.3 trigger either direction. Such trigger worked OK in the past but do not expect any crazy price movements either. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, it should be good for the pound and I would buy GBP/USD and expect it to move around 35 to 40 pips in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, it should be bad enough to take a speculative short trade on GBP/USD and also expect 35 to 40 pips move in the first hour of the report. Pay attention to the other numbers as well. I would not expect the price to move too much if there are any conflicts so with this report I would either take a good, clean signal or I would not trade it at all. Also, as always, pay attention to the price action right before the report as well as to important price levels that may hold the move. For the "afterspike" trade, if the trigger is hit and there are no conflicts, try to get in within 10 pips of the prerelease price and adjust SL smartly.

2. Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change coming out. It is expected to come out at 10K. I am going to use -15 and +20 trigger. If it comes out at -5 K or more negative, it should be bad for Australian dollar and I would sell AUD/USD. If it comes out at +30K or better, it should be good for Australian dollar and I would buy AUD/USD. If my trigger is hit, the price can move 40 to 50 pips within first hour of the report. However, watch out for the unemployment rate which is expected to come out at 4.1%. A 0.2 deviation is a good enough to move the market well but even 0.1 deviation can mute the move if conflicting with the Employment change. In general, higher unemployment is bad for AUD and lower unemployment is good for Australian dollar. If the unemployment rate is conflicting with the employment change, I would stay away (or get out if you are already in trade using the SNW). Ideally, with a positive deviation on employment change you want to see a negative deviation on the unemployment rate, OR with a negative deviation on the employment change you want to see a positive deviation on the unemployment rate.

God luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/09/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/09/08 - Today, 05:27 AM
Hi there my friend

Let's talk about the UK Industrial Production then.

1. Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Industrial Production m/m coming out. It is expected it will came out 0.1%. Quite honestly, this is not my favorite report to trade. I will give a shot with 0.3 trigger either direction. Such trigger worked OK in the past but do not expect any crazy price movements either. It it comes out at 0.4% or higher, it should be good for the pound and I would buy GBP/USD and expect it to move around 35 to 40 pips in the first hour. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, it should be bad enough to take a speculative short trade on GBP/USD and also expect 35 to 40 pips move in the first hour. Pay attention to the other numbers as well. I would not expect the price to move too much if there are any conflicts so with this report I would either take a good signal or I would not trade it at all. Also, as always, pay attention to the price action right before the report as well as to important price levels that may hold the move.

2. Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 (9:30 p.m. New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Then at 9:30 p.m. we will have Australian Employment Change. We will update this signal before that trade and as soon as this signal is updated, we will send emails.

Anyway, enough talking. Thanks and come back before the Australian report.

God luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/08/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/08/08 - Today, 05:38 AM
Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review last Friday and Monday.

On Friday we had Swiss CPI. It came out a little high but it was not tradable anyway.

The Canadian Employment came out as expected but the unemployment rate came out higher by 0.2%. Nevertheless, it was a no trade.

U.S. Non-Farm payroll came out very low but still not enough low to enter a trade. However, last two months were revised lower, and the unemployment rate came out higher from 4.8% to 5.1%. All three factors allowed me to give a few trades on the Diamonds room, and we made a nice money there. USD/JPY moved by around 80 pips in a first few minutes so it was a very nice drop. The retracement was amazing as well, allowing to reenter at a very good price. I hope you made a nice money on it.

Then we had Canadian Ivey PMI. It came out lower but not low enough to trade it.

On Monday we had Canadian Building Permits. It came out lower but not low enough to enter a trade. The price actually moved pretty well. I will look at this indicator even closer in the future. If the next time the price moves well on smaller deviations, I will consider tightening my triggers. For now, better safe than sorry.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, April 8th, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. Pending Home Sales m/m coming out. It is expected to come out at -0.8% but other sources say -1.0%. I would recommend to skip this report as it is not safe to trade it at all. If you are around and have nothing to do, you can try to use a huge trigger of ~3.0 or so, and only on the positive side. Therefore, if it comes out at 2.2% or higher, I would buy USD/JPY and expect a move of 30 pips or so. If it deviates negatively, it would be a no trade.

2. Tuesday, April 8th, 2008 (2:00 p.m. New York Time) USA
At 2:00 p.m. we will have U.S. FOMC Meeting. There is a lot of reading involved, and you have to judge really fast in order to enter a profitable trade. If you are new in Forex and/or you are not able to read critically and/or fast, skip this report. If you are interested in trading it, please watch the video. On that video you will find everything what you need to trade this event.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!

Forex Trading Signal 04/01/08

Forex Trading Signal 04/01/08 - Today, 04:30 AM

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Hi my dear Trader

Let's first review what happened earlier today.

The Euro Zone CPI deviated well enough to enter a trade if, of course, the triggers were provided. Because I said to skip that report, it was a no trade. It was a good call because the price went the other way. We did not enter a losing trade, and it is a good thing.

Canadian GDP came out slightly higher than expected but not high enough to hit our triggers. It was a good no trade signal because after a minimal drop on USD/CAD the price went the other way.

The Chicago PMI did not deviate a lot but even if it did, it would be a no trade anyway.

The Australian Interest Rate statement came out as expected so a no trade here.

Let's talk about Tuesday.

1. Tuesday, April 1st, 2008 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
At 4:30 a.m. we will have UK Manufacturing PMI. I will not be trading it myself; therefore, I don't recommend trading it. The Manufacturing PMI just did not perform well enough to take a risk and enter a trade. If you really want to trade it, use 1.5 trigger on it.

2. Tuesday, April 1st, 2008 (10:00 a.m. New York Time) USA
At 10:00 a.m. we will have U.S. ISM Manufacturing coming out. It is expected to come out at 47.5. I will use 1.5 trigger on this one. A trigger of 1.0 may move the market but it might be a bit risky. Therefore, if it comes out at 49 or higher, it would be a buy signal on USD/JPY; if it comes out at 46 or less, it would be a sell signal on USD/JPY. If either trigger is hit, look for 45~50 pips of a price action. If the signal agrees with the trend, the move might be even bigger.

That's all for tomorrow.

Thank you and good luck with your trades.

To Our Success!