Friday, June 29th, 2007

Let's now talk about what is going on tomorrow.

1. Friday, June 29th, 2007 (4:30 am New York time) UK
Tomorrow we are starting a day with UK GDP and current account balance coming out at 4:30 a.m. New York time. The current account is expected to come out at negative -12 billion versus -12.7 billion last month, and the GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is expected to come out the same at 0.7%, same as it did last month at 0.7%. This GDP is simply a revision of a quarterly number; it's same for the number it was released last month, and deviations of those almost never happen. Most likely this will be a no trade but just in case the GDP comes out at 0.9% or higher GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP comes out at 0.5% or lower, we possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. The current account my also cost some volatility, but the GDP, if deviates, is going to move the market.

SUMMARY:
* Report: UK GDP
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if a reading comes out at 0.9% or higher
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if a reading comes out at 0.5% or lower
* Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit

2. Friday, June 29th, 2007 (8:30 am New York time) CANADA
Then at 8.30 New York time we have U.S. Core PCE Price Index, and we have Canadian GDP coming out at the same time. My focus will be on Canadian GDP. It is very interesting what is going on with Canadian dollar right now. It has been strengthening, and the GDP can be very crucial for their next interest rate decision. It is expected the Canadian GDP will come out around 0.2% versus 0.3% previous month. In my opinion, if it comes out at 0.4% or higher, we may possibly see USD/CAD going down; I would, however, focus more on EUR/CAD instead because we do not have any possible conflicts with the U.S. reports that come out at the same time. If the number comes out at 0.4% or higher, we may possibly see EUR/CAD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP comes out flat at 0%, we may possibly see EUR/CAD going up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian GDP
* Possible SELL on EUR/CAD if a reading comes out at 0.4% or higher
* Possible BUY on EUR/CAD if a reading comes out at flat at 0%
* Expect 40 to 50 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit

3. Friday, June 29th, 2007 (9:42 am New York time) USA
Then at 9:45 a.m. New York time we will have Chicago PMI coming out. It measures manufacturing activity in a very industrialist part of the United States, and it just happens to come out always one day before the ISN manufacturing so it gets a lot of spotlight. Chicago PMI is expected to come out at 58 versus 61.7. This report will actually come out to special subscribers at 9:42 a.m. instead of 9:45 a.m. I do have access to that and I will get the number. Anyway, it is expected to come out at 58, and if it comes out at 62 or higher, it would be higher than the previous month in a large deviation so we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, the number comes out at around 54 or lower, I think GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US Chicago PMI
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if a reading comes out at 62 or higher
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if a reading comes out at 54 or lower
* Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit

That's all for tomorrow. I hope you will have a wonderful trading day, and I hope both you and me will make some money tomorrow.

Thursday, June 28th, 2007

Tomorrow is a big day: we have 4 things happening.

1. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
We have U.S. GDP coming out at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It is a final estimate of the first-quarter, and it is expected to come out at 0.8% but most economists expect a slightly lower reading rather than the higher one. So if the reading comes out at 1% or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the GDP reading comes out at 0.5% or lower, we may possibly see GBP/USD going up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is a kind of report that may cause a breakout on the GBP/USD, so if the price is still close to 2.0000, we may see a breakout and the price may go to 2.0050 or higher. So this could be an important report that could break that level.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US GDP
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 1% or higher
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if reading comes out at 0.5% or lower
* Expect 30 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.

2. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (2:15 p.m. New York Time) USA
Then, later in the day at 2:15 p.m. New York time, we have a U.S. interest rates statement coming out. You can skip this one if you do not know what you are doing. Most likely they are going to keep the rate at the same level of 5.25%. If for some reason they hike a rate to 5.50%, it would be a possible sell on GBP/USD, and it would probably be good for over 100 pips. If for some reason they would cut a rate to 5.00%, it would be possible long on GBP/USD and it would be good for 100 pips or so. Unfortunately, it is probably a 1% chance of that happening, almost no chance. There will be comments accommodating this report, most likely, and it could be tradable. If Bernanke insists on the fact that housing is not that important and inflation is important and he's being hawkish, it may be a possible sell on GBP/USD. If he starts saying that housing is extremely important and they have to do a cut or have to really consider it, then we may see GBP/USD going up. But this could be really hard to trade. If you don't know what you are doing, just skip this one.

SUMMARY:
* Report: US Interest Rate
* Possible SELL on GBP/USD if they hike rate to 5.50%
* Possible BUY on GBP/USD if they cut rate to 5.00%
* Expect 100 pips move in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit
* Watch out for comments, read a detailed description how to trade that.

3. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time, we have New Zealand GDP coming out which is expected to come out at 1% versus 0.8% previous quarter. This is going to be a report for the first quarter of 2007. If it comes out at 1.2% or higher, I think NZD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If for some reason it comes out at 0.7% or lower, we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even smaller deviations can cause relatively large moves but we will need to judge the price action and price levels right before the report.

SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand GBP
* Possible BUY on NZD/USD if reading comes out at 1.2% or higher
* Possible SELL on NZD/USD in reading comes out at 0.7% or lower
* Expect 40 pips move or more in the first hour of the report if a trigger is hit.

4. Thursday, June 28th, 2007 (7:30 p.m. New York Time) JAPAN
Then, at 7:30 p.m. New York time, we have Japan CPI coming out. This is a crucial time for Japan CPI. We will have a national CPI and Tokyo CPI. National CPI always go behind Tokyo CPI. National CPI is going to be for a month of May, and Tokyo CPI is very current and it is for the month of June. The most important number will probably be a Tokyo CPI ex-food, just food, and it is expected to come out at approximately 0.1% or 0%: about half-and-half. If it comes out at 0.2%, it would be good for the Yen and USD/JPY could possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, the CPI comes out lower than expected, if it comes out at -0.1% or more negative, USD/JPY may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This is crucial because there is a lot of talk whether or not Japan will raise interest rates in August, and this particular report can even make their mind for that or talk them out of raising rates. So this report could be equivalent to interest rates statement expectations that can move the market pretty big, especially that Yen has been in a very big focus recently.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Japan Tokyo CPI ex-food
* Possible SELL on USD/JPY if reading comes out at 0.2% or higher
* Possible BUY on USD/JPY if reading comes out at -0.1% or lower (more negative)
* Expect 50 pips move or more in the fist hour of the report if a trigger is hit

That's all about tomorrow. I hope you have a great day, and I hope you will make some money. I will talk to you later. Thanks so much.

Friday, June 22nd, 2007

1. Friday, June 22nd, 2007 (4:00 am New York Time) GERMANY
Tomorrow is a very slow day. Usually Fridays have big news announcements but tomorrow we do not have that many big news announcements. There is only one indicator that I will be watching and possibly trading, and that's German IFO business index. That's coming out at 4 a.m. New York time. There are three different numbers coming out for the German IFO: there is German IFO business expectations, German IFO current situation and German IFO business climate. Business climate is simply a combination of business expectations and current situations and so far it is the most watched one so I will personally be focusing on the German IFO business climate index. It is expected to come out at 108.4 versus previous month of 108.6. In December 2006 this indicator came up at 108.7 which set the record high ever for this indicator. Anything above 108.7 will be a new record high. If this index comes out at 109.5, I believe EUR/USD may possibly go up by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, however, this index comes out at 107.5 or lower, I think EUR/USD may possibly go down by 20 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As always, price levels right before the report may greatly affect this move: we may see even bigger move, although at the same time possible conflicts from business expectations may alter the move so you have to which out for that.

Friday, June 15th, 2007

Let's now talk about what's going on tomorrow, Friday.

1. Friday, June 15th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have only one major report that's coming up tomorrow. We have CPI
coming out of the United States at 8:30 a.m. New York time. In
addition to that, we have consumer price index core number, then we
also have the Empire State Business Conditions Index, we have current
account and few other year-over-year numbers on CPI. The most
important of all of these indicators will be the consumer price index
core m/m. It's expected to come out at 0.2%. If it comes out at 0.4%
or higher, I think GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in
the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 0% or negative, GBP/
USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the
report. The reason being the higher the number on the CPI, the better
is going to be for the US dollar. Now, if the CPI doesn't come out
deviating the 0.2% but it only comes out deviating but 0.1% from
expectations, meaning instead of 0.2% it comes out at 0.3%, I think
we are going to see a move; it may be a smaller one: only maybe 30 or
40 pips, and it will largely depend on the strong price levels before
the report. As you can see right now, the GBP/USD is at 1.9700 level.
If it stays at that level or it's a little bit lower of that level, I
am not sure whether 9670 or 9680 can be broken decisively if the CPI
comes of slightly higher. On the other hand, if the CPI comes out of
0.1% and the price is still around similar levels right now, we may
see GBP/USD go up by maybe as much as 40 or 50 pips. Again, the price
is not as important, and it's very difficult to predict where the
price will be before the report but the point is if there is a
deviation from the expectations of 0.2% on the core number, we are
going to see some volatility in the dollar crosses. So, the higher
the number, the more positive for the dollar, bearish for GBP/USD;
the lower the number the more negative for US dollar, bullish for GBP/
USD. There's definitely some account has to be taken; current-account
imparts the business conditions has to be taken into consideration
but not too seriously. CPI core is what is going to drive the move,
in my opinion.

2. Friday, June 15th, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) USA
Then, at 9 a.m. NY time, we have treasury international capital long-
term investments coming out, also known as TIC. It's expected to come
out at approximately 72 billion and this report has been a very
unreliable report lately. I personally will not be trading it. I will
be watching it and there may be some opportunities depending on what
the CPI will do. So be aware of it. You may see a price move by 15 or
20 pips either direction, very fast back-and-forth, but I do not
recommend trading that unless you know what you're doing.

3. Friday, June 15th, 2007 (9:15 am New York Time) USA
Then at 9:15 a.m. New York time we have industrial production coming
out of the United States. Industrial production measures
manufacturing activity and mining activity in the United States. This
is another report that's usually a bad mover; very inconsistent
report. It's expected to come out around 0.1%. I personally will be
watching this report but I will not be too quick to jump on it. The
way I trade this report will largely depend on what the CPI will do
but generally speaking the higher industrial production, the better
is for the dollar (GBP/USD down); the worst industrial production,
the worse it is for the dollar, meaning GBP/USD up. There may be a
move of 20 or 30 pips if Industrial production comes out deviating
but 0.5% either direction but as I said, this is going to be a long
shot.

4. Friday, June 15th, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then, at 10 a.m. NY time, we have University of Michigan consumer
sentiment coming out. I will not be trading this report for sure.
Reason being, this is a private report and many times it has low
integrity. Sometimes it leaks and you can see the move happening
before it's actually released, and when it actually comes out there
may not be a trading opportunity. Also, the market doesn't care much
about that report. So just be aware of some small price action, maybe
10, 15 or 20 pips at 10 a.m. and I personally will be skipping that
report.

Okay, that's all for tomorrow. I hope you will have a wonderful
weekend and I hope you will make some money tomorrow so we could
spend some during the weekend, and I'll talk to you again on Sunday
night.

Free Forex Signal and Fundamental News

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1. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (3:30 am New York Time) SWITZERLAND
At 3:30 a.m. NY time we have interest rates statement coming out of Switzerland. They are expecting the rate to be hiked from 2.25% last month to 2.50%. This is largely priced in and largely expected so even if the rate is hiked, I do not think that there is going to be much price movement. If for some reason, however, the rate is not hiked and it stays at 2.25% it will be a possible buy on USD/CHF which could be good for around 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Even if the rate is hiked, there may be a speech accommodating the interest rate statement. If in the speech they're mentioning that further rate hikes may be needed then I think USD/CHF may possibly go down toward Swiss strength by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
Then, we have UK retail sales m/m coming out. They are expected to come out at 0.3% versus -0.1% last month. Retail sales is an important indicator that accounts for a large portion of consumer spending, and this may be very exciting. I feel that if the retail sales come out at 0.5% or higher we may possibly see GBP/USD move up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If, on the other hand, the retail sales come out flat at 0% I think GBP/USD may possibly weaken and go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, it may be more, it may be 70 pips but it will largely depend on how big deviation from the expectations is.

3. Thursday, June 14th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then, we have producer price index, also known as PPI, coming out of the US. In addition to that, we have the producer price index excluding food and energy coming out of the US, and we have unemployment claims coming out of US - all of the same time. The producer price index headline is expected at 0.6% versus 0.7% last month. The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy, is expected to come out at 0.2% versus 0% percent last month, and the unemployment claims are expected to come out around 315,000 versus 309,000 last week. The number to focus on, in my opinion, is the producer price index excluding food and energy. Basically, what this indicator is, it measures producer prices which constitutes for 20% of the total inflation in the US. Because such a small part of inflation, it's not a very important indicator. I personally do not like trading it so I will not be personally trading this report. I think it's too risky and too spiky; however, if you want to take your chances, I think if the core producer price index comes out at 1% or higher, we may possibly see GBP/USD go down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report - because it would be strengthening U.S. dollar as inflation will be higher than it's expected, and it may cause US to eventually possibly raise interest rates. That's just how inflation indicators work: the higher it is, the better it is for the currency. On the other hand, if the producer price index core comes out at -0.5% or more negative, it would be negative for the US dollar and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. This move may depend on some strong levels that they are there before the report. There also may be conflicts from the headline number and unemployment claims, but the core producer price index is what to focus on. As I said, I personally will not be trading this one but it's up to you if you do.

That's all for tomorrow, I hope we all make some money tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have a few reports coming out of the UK. We have the UK unemployment rate, then we have the UK claimant count, and average earnings. UK unemployment rate is by far the most important out of all the others, but since it's such a solid indicator that almost always comes out as expected, the other indicators get the spotlight, because they are pretty volatile. So the unemployment rate is expected at 5.5%. If it comes out at 5.7% or higher, it would probably be bad for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If it comes out at 5.3% or lower, it would probably be good for the pound, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Average earnings and
claimant count will probably also cause some volatility, but usually those are weak indicators and I don't like trading them. I personally won't be trading these reports, because the unemployment rate is highly unlikely to deviate enough to hit my trigger, and the other two are not important enough in my opinion.

2. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then we have US core retail sales coming out of the US. This is an important indicator that I definitely will be watching and possibly trading personally. It's expected to come out at 0.7% or so. A reading of 1.0% or higher would be strong, and GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the reading is at 0.3% or lower, it would be a relatively low reading, considering that previous retail sales were flat, and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. I am saying 50 pips here with a lot of caution, because if there are any revisions or large conflicts with headline and core numbers, and if the GBP/USD is at some key price levels before the report, it may turn into a totally different story.

3. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) CANADA
At the same time as the US report, we also have Canadian manufacturing shipments report coming out, which is expected to come out at around 0.3%, after a whopping jump of 2.8% last month. If this number reads 1.5% or higher, EUR/CAD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. However, if this number reads -1.0% or more negative, EUR/CAD may possibly gain 40 pips or more on the back of such bad reading. Please note that I am saying EUR/CAD, instead of USD/CAD,since we don't want to trade USD/CAD, in case of possibly conflict between retail sales out of US and this Canadian report. However, if both reports compliment each other, and the price is still at a decent entry level, USD/CAD can possibly be traded as well.

4. Wednesday, June 13th, 2007 (6:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then we have retail sales coming out of New Zealand. Unlike the US, where most of focus is on core number, the most important number in New Zealand is actually the headline number, which is expected to come out flat at 0.0% after a whopping gain of 1.3% last month. If the retail sales show a growth of 0.3%, I think we may see NZD/USD gain 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at -0.3% or more negative, we may see NZD/USD go down by
30 pips or more in the hour of the report.

Friday, June 1st, 2007

1. Friday, June 1st, 2007 (1:45 am New York Time) SWITZERLAND
First report that I will be watching and possibly trading will be Swiss CPI m/m at 1:45 am NY time. CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, and this indicator measures inflation in Switzerland. It is expected that it will come out at 0.2% versus 1.1% from previous month. In my opinion,
if Swiss CPI comes out at 0.5% or higher it would be positive for Swiss Frank, and USD/CHF may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at -0.1% or lower, it would probably be not so good for Swiss Frank because lower inflation means no incentive for the Swiss government to raise the interest rates so a lower CPI would probably be bad for the Frank, and USD/CHF may possible go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. We may even get a move of 30 pips or more if the deviation is 0.2% either direction, but that would be kind of a risky trade that I may consider depending on price levels that we see on the USD/CHF and some other pairs right before the report.

2. Friday, June 1st, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
Next, we will have UK Manufacturing PMI coming out at 4.30 am NY time, and it stands for Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. It is expected to come out at approximately 53.8 versus previous moths of 53.9. So they are expecting Manufacturing PMI to come out the same as the last months. Manufacturing PMI measures manufacturing activity in the UK, and it is an important indicator that can cause relatively large
moves depending how much it deviates. Since the reading is expected at about 54, I believe if the number comes out at 56 or higher, it may possibly drive GBP/USD up by about 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the number comes out at 52 or lower, we may see GBP/USD go down by about 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Anything in between could also be tradable, but it could cause a smaller move, and it will largely depend on where the price is before the report, and how the market is reacting to the report. I have seen even a deviation of 1 cause a move of around 30 pips on the GBP/USD, but I think deviation of 2 will be safer.

3. Friday, June 1st, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
Then, at 8.30 am NY time we have a big boy U.S. Non-Farm Payroll. It measures employment situation in the US, and it is a very timely indicator. It is coming out for the month of May, and it is the most watched indicator that gives the biggest move. Also, we have Unemployment rate coming out, we have average hourly earnings, we have Core PCE price index, which is an inflationary index, we will have personal
spending and personal income coming out all at the same time. The Non-Farm Payroll is the most important out of all of them, and it is going to take most of the attention. Last month it came out at 88K, and this month it is expected to come out at approximately 135K or so. Not only the actual number is important, but the revision is also important, and
Unemployment rate can cause some conflicts if it is deviating too much. If it comes out at 180K or above, deviating 40K or more, we may see GBP/USD move down by 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Obviously it will be because more positive number on Non-Farm payroll would be positive for the dollar. On the other hand, if the number comes out at 85K or below, we may see GBP/USD gain at 80 pips or more in the first hour of the report simply because at this point they are expecting the number to come out at 135K versus 88K last
month, and if it comes out at 85K it wouldn't gain the jobs they are expecting, and that would be negative for the dollar. Watch out for revisions; if the revision is 15-20K or less, and it is conflicting, it may create some temporary volatility, and it may give you the opportunities to possibly put more money or enter at better price after the spike starts happening. On the other hand, if the revision is bigger, it may even completely reverse the whole trend, so be careful on this one.

4. Friday, June 1st, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then, at 10 am NY time, we have ISM Manufacturing Index coming out. It will be coming out together with ISM Manufacturing Prices, and also University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The most important out of the three is ISM Manufacturing Index. ISM stands for Institute for Supply Management. It is a private report that has been around since 1930s and it is extremely important because it measures manufacturing activity in the US. Many times GBP/USD reacts to this report by 70 pips or more. That's what we want. Some reports may be theoretically important, but the market doesn't react to them, and we
don't care about those reports. So ISM Manufacturing Index is
expected to come out at 54 versus 54.7 last month. At the same time ISM Manufacturing Prices are expected to come out at 73, same as last month. Safe deviation for the Manufacturing Index is 2 also. So I believe it comes out at 56 or higher it would probably be positive for the dollar, and we may see GBP/USD go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if it comes out at 52 or lower, it would probably be negative for the dollar and GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. ISM Prices Paid many times conflicts with the actual number. That report may come out conflicting, which means, it may come out higher
while the other reports come out lower, and vice versa. If that
happens, you could take advantage of possible retracement. And of course, as always, watch out for possible revisions for that report, and on this one if the revision is less than 20K, it may provide a temporary retracement. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is the second, final revision of the report that came out 2 weeks ago. It is expected to come out the same at 88.7 versus 88.7. This report is a dog so you may ignore it if you like. Now it is very rare that ISM Manufacturing comes out right after Non-Farm Payroll, and Non-Farm
payroll is a huge report. So if Non-Farm Payroll deviates largely and it creates a large move, people may use ISM Manufacturing to get into the Non-Farm payroll move an hour and a half later at better price, so watch out for that. It may move 40 or 50 pips at the opposite direction, and the bulls or bears may take advantage of the better price, and you will see a quick retracement of almost 100%.
And again, I cannot predict what is going to happen, because I don't know what Non-Farm payroll will be, and I don't know what ISM Manufacturing will be. You may possibly use deviation of less than 2 either direction to trade ISM Manufacturing, and lesser deviation may create lesser movements like 20 or 30 pips or whatever, but be careful on those - the moves may be smaller and quicker. You want to try to avoid quick spiky moves because those are very difficult to get in on. You want a sustained move, or at least a move that is going to make an adjustment and will start to consolidate so that if you can get
a good entry you have enough time to exit.

I think that's all for tomorrow. I hope this information was useful, and I hope you will make money with it. Wait for the next info with review of this information, and more reports with some more trading possibilities next time.

Thank you so much and have a wonderful day.